IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/coacre/v14y1997i1p1-42.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Re†Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • PRAVEEN SINHA
  • LAWRENCE D. BROWN
  • SOMNATH DAS

Abstract

. This research re†examines whether there are differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts through a comparison of their annual earnings per share forecasts. The comparison of analyst forecast accuracy is made on both an ex post (within sample) and an ex ante (out of sample) basis. Early examinations of this issue by Richards (1976), Brown and Rozeff (1980), O'Brien (1987), Coggin and Hunter (1989), O'Brien (1990), and Butler and Lang (1991) were ex post and suggest the absence of analysts who can provide relatively more accurate forecasts over multiple years. Contrary to the results of prior research and consistent with the belief in the popular press, we document that differences do exist in financial analysts' ex post forecast accuracy. We show that the previous studies failed to find differences in forecast accuracy due to inadequate (or no) control for differences in the recency of forecasts issued by the analysts. It has been well documented in the literature that forecast recency is positively related to forecast accuracy (Crichfield, Dyckman, and Lakonishok 1978; O'Brien 1988; Brown 1991). Thus, failure to control for forecast recency may reduce the power of tests, making it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of no differences in forecast accuracy even if they do exist. In our analysis, we control for the differences in recency of analysts' forecasts using two different approaches. First, we use an estimated generalized least squares estimation procedure that captures the recency†induced effects in the residuals of the model. Second, we use a matched†pair design whereby we measure the relative forecast accuracy of an analyst by comparing his/her forecast error to the forecast error of another randomly selected analyst making forecasts for the same firm in the same year on or around the same date. Using both approaches, we find that differential forecast accuracy does exist amongst analysts, especially in samples with minimum forecast horizons of five and 60 trading days. We show that these differences are not attributable to differences in the forecast issuance frequency of the financial analysts. In sum, after controlling for firm, year, forecast recency, and forecast issuance frequency of individual analysts, the analyst effect persists. To validate our findings, we examine whether the differences in the forecast accuracy of financial analysts persist in holdout periods. Analysts were assigned a “superior†(“inferior†) status for a firm†year in the estimation sample using percentile rankings on the distribution of absolute forecast errors for that firm†year. We use estimation samples of one†to four†year duration, and consider two different definitions of analyst forecast superiority. Analysts were classified as firm†specific “superior†if they maintained a “superior†status in every year of the estimation sample. Furthermore, they were classified as industry†specific “superior†if they were deemed firm†specific “superior†with respect to at least two firms and firm†specific “inferior†with respect to no firm in that industry. Using either definition, we find that analysts classified as “superior†in estimation samples generally remain superior in holdout periods. In contrast, we find that analysts identified as “inferior†in estimation samples do not remain inferior in holdout periods. Our results suggest that some analysts' earnings forecasts should be weighted higher than others when formulating composite earnings expectations. This suggestion is predicated on the assumption that capital markets distinguish between analysts who are ex ante superior, and that they utilize this information when formulating stock prices. Our study provides an ex ante framework for identifying those analysts who appear to be superior. When constructing weighted forecasts, a one†year estimation period should be used because we obtain the strongest results of persistence in this case.

Suggested Citation

  • Praveen Sinha & Lawrence D. Brown & Somnath Das, 1997. "A Re†Examination of Financial Analysts' Differential Earnings Forecast Accuracy," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 1-42, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:14:y:1997:i:1:p:1-42
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1997.tb00518.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1997.tb00518.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1911-3846.1997.tb00518.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1991. "Forecast selection when all forecasts are not equally recent," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 349-356, November.
    2. Jennings, R, 1987. "Unsystematic Security Price Movements, Management Earnings Forecasts, And Revisions In Consensus Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 90-110.
    3. Abdelkhalik, Ar & Espejo, J, 1978. "Expectations Data And Predictive Value Of Interim Reporting," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13.
    4. Ryan, Sg, 1995. "A Model Of Accrual Measurement With Implications For The Evolution Of The Book-To-Market Ratio (Vol 33, Pg 95, 1995)," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 417-417.
    5. Butler, Kc & Lang, Lhp, 1991. "The Forecast Accuracy Of Individual Analysts - Evidence Of Systematic Optimism And Pessimism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 150-156.
    6. Richards, R Malcolm, 1976. "Analysts' Performance and the Accuracy of Corporate Earnings Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(3), pages 350-357, July.
    7. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    9. Ryan, Sg, 1995. "A Model Of Accrual Measurement With Implications For The Evolution Of The Book-To-Market Ratio," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 95-112.
    10. Stickel, Se, 1990. "Predicting Individual Analyst Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 409-417.
    11. Mendenhall, Rr, 1991. "Evidence On The Possible Underweighting Of Earnings-Related Information," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 170-179.
    12. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.
    2. Wen-Chuan Miao & Hsiou-Wei Lin, 2023. "Return On Equity Estimates And Fourquadrant Square Position: Evidence From Taiwan," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16.
    3. Lin, Hai & Tao, Xinyuan & Wu, Chunchi, 2022. "Forecasting earnings with combination of analyst forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 133-159.
    4. Dang, Chongyu & Foerster, Stephen & Li, Zhichuan (Frank) & Tang, Zhenyang, 2021. "Analyst talent, information, and insider trading," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Weissensteiner, Alex, 2019. "Correlated noise: Why passive investment might improve market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 158-172.
    6. Mauksch, Stefanie & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Gordon, Theodore J., 2020. "Who is an expert for foresight? A review of identification methods," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    7. Akono, Henri & Karim, Khondkar & Nwaeze, Emeka, 2019. "Analyst rounding of EPS forecasts and stock recommendations," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-80.
    8. Joel A. C. Baum & Anne Bowers & Partha Mohanram, 2016. "Mutual Forbearance and Competition Among Security Analysts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1610-1631, June.
    9. James, Robert & Jarnecic, Elvis & Leung, Henry, 2022. "Who Values Economist Forecasts? Evidence From Trading in Treasury Markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Athanasakou, Vasiliki E. & Simpson, Ana, 2016. "Investor attention to salient features of analyst forecasts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65745, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Andersson, Patric, 2004. "How well do financial experts perform? A review of empirical research on performance of analysts, day-traders, forecasters, fund managers, investors, and stockbrokers," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:9, Stockholm School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    2. Basu, Sudipta & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "Loss function assumptions in rational expectations tests on financial analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 171-203, December.
    3. Li, Xi, 2005. "The persistence of relative performance in stock recommendations of sell-side financial analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-3), pages 129-152, December.
    4. Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    5. Sunil Mohanty & Edward Aw, 2006. "Rationality of analysts' earnings forecasts: evidence from dow 30 companies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 915-929.
    6. Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Zawadi R. Lemayian, 2022. "Rationalizing forecast inefficiency," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 313-343, March.
    7. Kumar, Alok & Rantala, Ville & Xu, Rosy, 2022. "Social learning and analyst behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 434-461.
    8. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.
    9. Amitabh Dugar & Siva Nathan, 1995. "The Effect of Investment Banking Relationships on Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and Investment Recommendations," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 131-160, September.
    10. Wayne Guay & SP Kothari & Susan Shu, 2011. "Properties of implied cost of capital using analysts’ forecasts," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(2), pages 125-149, August.
    11. Po‐Chang Chen & Ganapathi S. Narayanamoorthy & Theodore Sougiannis & Hui Zhou, 2020. "Analyst underreaction and the post‐forecast revision drift," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1151-1181, October.
    12. Hall, Jason L. & Tacon, Paul B., 2010. "Forecast accuracy and stock recommendations," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 18-33.
    13. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    14. Stefano Bonini & Laura Zanetti & Roberto Bianchini & Antonio Salvi, 2010. "Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1177-1217, November.
    15. Mozes, Haim A., 2003. "Accuracy, usefulness and the evaluation of analysts' forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 417-434.
    16. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 1999. "The relative forecast accuracy of UK brokers," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 3-16.
    17. Sung Hwan Jung, 2017. "The contingent effect of analyst coverage: how does analyst coverage affect innovation and Tobin’s Q?," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1-2), pages 43-67, April.
    18. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 565-590, June.
    19. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Nainar, S.M. Khalid & Zhang, X. Frank, 2006. "Further evidence on analyst and investor misweighting of prior period cash flows and accruals," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 51-74.
    20. Hannu, Schadewitz, 1997. "Financial and nonfinancial information in interim reports: Determinants and implications," MPRA Paper 44292, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:coacre:v:14:y:1997:i:1:p:1-42. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1911-3846 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.