IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/apsmbi/v36y2020i3p353-380.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transmission of macroeconomic shocks to risk parameters: Their uses in stress testing

Author

Listed:
  • Helder Rojas
  • David Dias

Abstract

In this paper, we are interested in evaluating the resilience of financial portfolios under extreme economic conditions. Therefore, we use empirical measures to characterize the transmission process of macroeconomic shocks to risk parameters. We propose the use of an extensive family of models, called General Transfer Function Models, which condense well the characteristics of the transmission described by the impact measures. The procedure for estimating the parameters of these models is described employing the Bayesian approach and using the prior information provided by the impact measures. In addition, we illustrate the use of the estimated models from the credit risk data of a portfolio.

Suggested Citation

  • Helder Rojas & David Dias, 2020. "Transmission of macroeconomic shocks to risk parameters: Their uses in stress testing," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(3), pages 353-380, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:353-380
    DOI: 10.1002/asmb.2493
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/asmb.2493
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/asmb.2493?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    3. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    4. Dent, Kieran & Westwood, Ben & Segoviano, Miguel, 2016. "Stress testing of banks: an introduction," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 56(3), pages 130-143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rojas, Helder & Dias, David, 2021. "Transfer of macroeconomic shocks in stress tests modeling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 572(C).
    2. Helder Rojas & David Dias, 2018. "Transmission of Macroeconomic Shocks to Risk Parameters: Their uses in Stress Testing," Papers 1809.07401, arXiv.org, revised May 2019.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    4. Snyder, Ralph D. & Ord, J. Keith & Beaumont, Adrian, 2012. "Forecasting the intermittent demand for slow-moving inventories: A modelling approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 485-496.
    5. Helder Rojas & David Dias, 2021. "Stress testing network reconstruction via graphical causal model," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 74-83, January.
    6. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2023. "The RWDAR model: A novel state-space approach to forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 922-937.
    7. Nibbering, Didier & Paap, Richard & van der Wel, Michel, 2018. "What do professional forecasters actually predict?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 288-311.
    8. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    9. repec:jss:jstsof:27:i03 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Diego J Pedregal, 2019. "Time series analysis and forecasting with ECOTOOL," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "Agent-based model of system-wide implications of funding risk," Working Paper Series 2121, European Central Bank.
    12. Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Anticipating special events in Emergency Department forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1197-1213.
    13. Theodosiou, Marina, 2011. "Forecasting monthly and quarterly time series using STL decomposition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1178-1195, October.
    14. Yelland, Phillip M., 2010. "Bayesian forecasting of parts demand," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 374-396, April.
    15. de Silva, Ashton, 2008. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using a structural state space model," MPRA Paper 11060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2020. "Forecasting with the damped trend model using the structural approach," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    17. Trond Husby & Hans Visser, 2021. "Short- to medium-run forecasting of mobility with dynamic linear models," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(28), pages 871-902.
    18. Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2020. "Recovering Yield Curves from Dynamic Term Structure Models with Time-Varying Factors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, August.
    19. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Random coefficient state-space model: Estimation and performance in M3–M4 competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 352-366.
    20. Twumasi, Clement & Twumasi, Juliet, 2022. "Machine learning algorithms for forecasting and backcasting blood demand data with missing values and outliers: A study of Tema General Hospital of Ghana," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1258-1277.
    21. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Victor Bystrov, 2018. "Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 333-353, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:apsmbi:v:36:y:2020:i:3:p:353-380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1002/(ISSN)1526-4025 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.