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Election Timing, Electorate Composition, and Policy Outcomes: Evidence from School Districts

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  • Vladimir Kogan
  • Stéphane Lavertu
  • Zachary Peskowitz

Abstract

There is considerable debate about how election timing shapes who votes, election outcomes, and, ultimately, public policy. We examine these matters by combining information on more than 10,000 school tax referenda with detailed micro‐targeting data on voters participating in each election. The analysis confirms that timing influences voter composition in terms of partisanship, ideology, and the numerical strength of powerful interest groups. But, in contrast to prominent theories of election timing, these effects are modest in terms of their likely impact on election outcomes. Instead, timing has the most significant impact on voter age, with the elderly being the most overrepresented group in low‐turnout special elections. The electoral (and policy) implications of this effect vary between states, and we offer one explanation for this variation.

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  • Vladimir Kogan & Stéphane Lavertu & Zachary Peskowitz, 2018. "Election Timing, Electorate Composition, and Policy Outcomes: Evidence from School Districts," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 62(3), pages 637-651, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:62:y:2018:i:3:p:637-651
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12359
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    Cited by:

    1. Cantoni, Enrico & Gazzè, Ludovica & Schafer, Jerome, 2021. "Turnout in concurrent elections: Evidence from two quasi-experiments in Italy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Thompson, Paul N., 2019. "Are school officials held accountable for fiscal stress? Evidence from school district financial intervention systems," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 44-54.
    3. Gregg, John J. & Lavertu, Stéphane, 2023. "Test-based accountability and educational equity: Breaking through local district politics?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Bich Thi Ngoc Tran, 2021. "Which Townships Support Charter Schools? A Study of the 2016 Massachusetts Charter Referendum," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 102(2), pages 865-880, March.
    5. Jennifer M. Nations & Isaac W. Martin, 2020. "Racial Context and Political Support for California School Taxes," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2220-2237, October.

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