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Are Export Restrictions an Effective Instrument to Insulate Domestic Prices Against Skyrocketing World Market Prices? The Wheat Export Ban in Serbia

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  • Ivan Djuric
  • Linde Götz
  • Thomas Glauben

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article analyzes how the market interventions of the Serbian government, among them an export ban, affected the domestic wheat market during the global commodity price peak in 2007–2008. We choose a flexible Markov‐switching error‐correction model as the framework for our price transmission analysis. The results show that the price transmission regime was not changed by the export ban. Thus, the export controls were not successful in dampening the domestic wheat price level. We make evident that the expected price decreasing effects of the export ban were offset by inconsistent additional policy measures and their faulty sequencing. Further, the governmental market interventions had even long‐lasting destabilizing market effects. Market instability was increased particularly after the cancellation of the export ban.

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  • Ivan Djuric & Linde Götz & Thomas Glauben, 2015. "Are Export Restrictions an Effective Instrument to Insulate Domestic Prices Against Skyrocketing World Market Prices? The Wheat Export Ban in Serbia," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 215-228, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:215-228
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.21398
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Glauben & Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Sören Prehn & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ivan Đurić & Lena Kuhn, 2022. "The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 157-163, May.
    2. repec:zbw:iamodp:235157 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas, 2015. "Trade Diversion and High Food Prices: The Impact of the Russian Pig Meat Import Ban," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229240, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    4. Linde Götz & Feng Qiu & Jean-Philippe Gervais & Thomas Glauben, 2016. "Export Restrictions and Smooth Transition Cointegration: Export Quotas for Wheat in Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 398-419, June.
    5. Maximilian Koppenberg & Martina Bozzola & Tobias Dalhaus & Stefan Hirsch, 2021. "Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 25-43, January.
    6. Vasilii Erokhin & Tianming Gao, 2020. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Trade and Economic Aspects of Food Security: Evidence from 45 Developing Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-28, August.
    7. Djuric, Ivan & Gotz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas, 2015. "The Imlact of the Russian Import Ban on Domestic Pig Meat Prices in Russia," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211579, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde & Glauben, Thomas, 2015. "Trade Diversion and High Food Prices: The Impact of the Russian Pig Meat Import Ban," 2015: Trade and Societal Well-Being, December 13-15, 2015, Clearwater Beach, Florida 229240, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    9. Linde Götz & Ivan Djuric & Oleg Nivievskyi, 2016. "Regional Price Effects of Extreme Weather Events and Wheat Export Controls in Russia and Ukraine," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 741-763, September.
    10. Gafarova, Gulmira & Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr & Glauben, Thomas, 2017. "Analysis Of Oligopolistic Behaviour Of Kazakh And Russian Exporters In The South Caucasus Wheat Market," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261429, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Heigermoser, Maximilian & Götz, Linde & Svanidze, Miranda, 2018. "Egypt’S Wheat Tenders – A Public Notice Board For Black Sea Grain Notations?," 58th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 12-14, 2018 275853, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    12. Jurkėnaitė, Nelė & Djuric, Ivan, 2018. "Impact of the Russian trade bans on Lithuanian pork sector," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 481-491.
    13. Brosig, Stephan & Glauben, Thomas & Levkovych, Inna & Prehn, Sören & Teuber, Ramona, 2016. "Are we moving towards functioning agricultural markets and trade relations?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 67(3), pages 677-684.
    14. Götz, Linde & Djuric, Ivan & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2016. "Regional wheat price effects of extreme weather events and wheat export controls in Russia and Ukraine [Regionale Weizenpreiseffekte von Wetterextremen und Weizenexportkontrollen in Russland und de," IAMO Discussion Papers 154, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    15. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde, 2016. "Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-123.
    16. Liefert, William M. & Westcott, Paul C., 2016. "Modifying agricultural export taxes to make them less market-distorting," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 65-77.
    17. Shuai Liu & Dingyu Liu & Sibo Ge, 2024. "Impact of external shocks on international corn price fluctuations," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(1), pages 1-11.
    18. Maximilian Heigermoser & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "Price formation within Egypt's wheat tender market: Implications for Black Sea exporters," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 819-831, September.
    19. Byungkwon Lim & Hyeon Sook Kim & Jaehwan Park, 2021. "Implicit Interpretation of Indonesian Export Bans on LME Nickel Prices: Evidence from the Announcement Effect," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-7, May.
    20. Gulmira Gafarova & Oleksandr Perekhozhuk & Thomas Glauben, 2023. "The Oligopolistic Behavior of Kazakh and Russian Wheat Exporters in the South Caucasus: Evidence from a Residual Demand Elasticity Analysis," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-32, June.
    21. Ijambo, Bertha Deshimona, 2017. "An econometric analysis of spatial market integration and price formation in the Namibian sheep industry," Research Theses 334744, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.

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