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Oil and Food Price Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yusuf Muhammad-Bashir Owolabi

    (1 Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin, Nigeria)

  • Salau Tunde Jibril

    (2 Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin, Nigeria)

  • Adeiza Adams

    (3 Malaysian Graduate School of Entrepreneurship and Business Universiti Malaysia Kelantan (UMK), Malaysia)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationship between food and oil prices in Nigeria before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, using monthly data from January 2018 to December 2021. The ARDL and NARDL models are applied to estimate the symmetry and asymmetric relationship that exists in food price behavior. The NARDL confirms the presence of asymmetries, and the bound test affirms the co-integration and long-run relationship among the variables. In the long run, there is a significant positive relation between oil price increases and food prices, but the long-run impact of oil price reductions on food prices is not significant. In the short run, only increases in oil prices exert a significant influence on food prices, while decreases in oil prices do not. Furthermore, the COVID-19 period exerts a positive and significant impact on food prices, while COVID-19 cases do not influence food prices in Nigeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Yusuf Muhammad-Bashir Owolabi & Salau Tunde Jibril & Adeiza Adams, 2024. "Oil and Food Price Before and During COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 34(2), pages 32-56, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:suvges:v:34:y:2024:i:2:p:32-56:n:2
    DOI: 10.2478/sues-2024-0007
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    Keywords

    Food price; Food price behaviour; Oil price; Asymmetry; ARDL; NARDL; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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