IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/reoecp/v21y2021i3p235-258n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What is the Sustainable Level of Banks’ Credit Losses and Provisions?

Author

Listed:
  • Malovaná Simona

    (Czech National Bank)

  • Tesařová Žaneta

    (Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Prague and Czech National Bank)

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the sustainable level of lifetime expected credit losses and provisions and assess the procyclicality of banks’ credit losses and provisions in the Czech Republic. Further, we discuss the implications of the results for provisioning in stage 3 under the IFRS 9. Based on the estimation results, we can identify periods of insufficient provisioning when the actual values were below the sustainable levels. Additionally, we show that credit losses and provisions behave procyclically (i.e., decrease with a rising output gap and increase with a falling output gap) while banks recognize impaired credit losses and create provisions with a delay of three to four quarters after the output gap starts shrinking. Such a delay may result in a sharp increase in lifetime expected credit losses and provisioning in response to a deterioration in economic conditions under the IFRS 9 regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Malovaná Simona & Tesařová Žaneta, 2021. "What is the Sustainable Level of Banks’ Credit Losses and Provisions?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 21(3), pages 235-258, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:21:y:2021:i:3:p:235-258:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/revecp-2021-0011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/revecp-2021-0011
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/revecp-2021-0011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2003. "Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: too much, too late?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 178-197, April.
    2. Harry Huizinga & Luc Laeven, 2019. "The Procyclicality of Banking: Evidence from the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 496-527, September.
    3. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    4. Bikker, J.A. & Metzemakers, P.A.J., 2005. "Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 141-157, April.
    5. Mathias Drehmann & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2012. "The effects of countercyclical capital buffers on bank lending," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 603-608, May.
    6. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    7. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia, 2012. "Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 25-31.
    8. Torsten Wezel & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Francesco Columba, 2012. "Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning: Simulationson Effectiveness and Guide to Implementation," IMF Working Papers 2012/110, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Ahmed, Anwer S. & Takeda, Carolyn & Thomas, Shawn, 1999. "Bank loan loss provisions: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signaling effects," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, November.
    11. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    12. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    13. Darren Pain, 2003. "The provisioning experience of the major UK banks: a small panel investigation," Bank of England working papers 177, Bank of England.
    14. Iftekhar Hasan & Larry D. Wall, 2004. "Determinants of the Loan Loss Allowance: Some Cross‐Country Comparisons," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 129-152, February.
    15. Stergios Leventis & Panagiotis Dimitropoulos & Asokan Anandarajan, 2011. "Loan Loss Provisions, Earnings Management and Capital Management under IFRS: The Case of EU Commercial Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 103-122, October.
    16. Beatty, A & Chamberlain, Sl & Magliolo, J, 1995. "Managing Financial Reports Of Commercial-Banks - The Influence Of Taxes, Regulatory Capital, And Earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 231-261.
    17. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    18. Scholes, Myron S & Wilson, G Peter & Wolfson, Mark A, 1990. "Tax Planning, Regulatory Capital Planning, and Financial Reporting Strategy for Commercial Banks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 625-650.
    19. Timothy W. Koch & Larry D. Wall, 2000. "The use of accruals to manage reported earnings: theory and evidence," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2000-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malovaná Simona & Tesařová Žaneta, 2022. "Banks’ Credit Losses and Provisioning over the Business Cycle: Implications for IFRS," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 53-74, March.
    2. Emrah Arbak, 2017. "Identifying the provisioning policies of Belgian banks," Working Paper Research 326, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Emrah Arbak, 2017. "Identifying the provisioning policies of Belgian banks," Working Paper Research 326, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2019. "Loan loss provisioning by Italian banks: Managerial discretion, relationship banking, functional distance and bank risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 238-256.
    5. Elnahass, Marwa & Izzeldin, Marwan & Steele, Gerald, 2018. "Capital and Earnings Management: Evidence from Alternative Banking Business Models," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 20-32.
    6. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2014. "Bank income smoothing, ownership concentration and the regulatory environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-270.
    7. Manuela M. Dantas & Kenneth J. Merkley & Felipe B. G. Silva, 2023. "Government Guarantees and Banks’ Income Smoothing," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 123-173, April.
    8. Hessou, Hélyoth T.S. & Lensink, Robert & Soumaré, Issouf & Tchakoute Tchuigoua, Hubert, 2021. "Provisioning over the business cycle: Some insights from the microfinance industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    10. Manuela M. Dantas & Kenneth J. Merkley & Felipe B. G. Silva, 2023. "Government Guarantees and Banks' Income Smoothing," Papers 2303.03661, arXiv.org.
    11. Pandey, Ashish & Guhathakurta, Kousik, 2022. "Value relevance of loan loss provision components and the choice of model specification," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. de Haan, Leo & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2018. "Timing of banks’ loan loss provisioning during the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 293-303.
    13. Dermine, J. & Neto de Carvalho, C., 2008. "Bank loan-loss provisioning, central bank rules vs. estimation: The case of Portugal," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, April.
    14. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit, 2012. "Effects of Loan Loss Provisions on Growth in Bank Lending: Some International Comparisons," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 91-116.
    15. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Zilberman, Roy, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning Rules, Procyclicality, and Financial Volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 301-315.
    16. Ozili, Peterson K, 2015. "Loan Loss Provisioning, Income Smoothing, Signaling, Capital Management and Procyclicality: Does IFRS Matter? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 68350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Ghosh, Saibal, 2022. "Elections and provisioning behavior: Assessing the Indian evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    18. Wahyoe Soedarmono & Amine Tarazi & Agusman Agusman & Gary S. Monroe & Dominic Gasbarro, 2016. "Loan Loss Provisions and Lending Behavior of Banks: Do Information Sharing and Borrower Legal Rights Matter?," Working Papers hal-01316717, HAL.
    19. Cummings, James R. & Durrani, Kassim J., 2016. "Effect of the Basel Accord capital requirements on the loan-loss provisioning practices of Australian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 23-36.
    20. Meng-Fen Hsieh & Chung-Hua Shen, 2011. "Business cycles and bank regulations - what happens to bank provisioning? A more comprehensive look at 49 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2811-2822.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit losses; IFRS 9; procyclicality; provisions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:21:y:2021:i:3:p:235-258:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.