IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ura/ecregj/v1y2017i1p126-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting of Interregional Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Yuriy Shmidt

    (Far Eastern Federal University)

  • Natalya Ivashina

    (Far Eastern Federal University)

  • Pavel Lobodin

    (FEFU)

  • Aleksey Kuhlevskiy

    (graduate student)

Abstract

The article explores the problem of interregional migration flows modelling. As a rule, the existing models of interregional migration flows use the aggregated data and do not take into consideration the fact that a decision to relocate is formed and taken at the micro-level, at the level of households. The purpose of the present research is to develop the forecasting method for interregional migration flows of the region taking into consideration the behaviour of households at the micro-level. The research tests the hypothesis that the modelling of household behaviours at the local level as regards taking a decision to relocate to other regions, which takes into account the existing interactions with relatives and other communities, allows to obtain adequate forecasts of interregional migration flows. To forecast the interregional migration flows of the region, we develop a methodological approach and software solution, based on cellular automaton model modification proposed in the current work and on econometric models of birth and death processes, which have been tested on the Primorsky Krai data. The authors’ model of the cellular automaton is a kind of the combined probabilistic cellular automaton in which the condition of each cell changes depending on a condition of four closest neighbours (von Neumann vicinity) and four cells chosen in a random way. The article builds a mid-term forecast of Primorsky Krai interregional migration flows. The research demonstrates the possibility and reasonability of modelling the interregional migration flows by cellular automatons. The highly perspective direction of the research is the modelling of other macroeconomic processes based on modelling by cellular automatons of a behaviour of households, companies and other economic entities at the local level.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuriy Shmidt & Natalya Ivashina & Pavel Lobodin & Aleksey Kuhlevskiy, 2017. "Forecasting of Interregional Migration Flows," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 126-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2017:i:1:p:126-136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economyofregion.ru/Data/Issues/ER2017/March_2017/ERMarch2017_126_136.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2003. "Determinants of Interregional Mobility in Russia: Evidence from Panel Data," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 551, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    2. Vakulenko, Elena & Mkrtchyan , Nikita & Furmanov, Kirill, 2011. "Modeling registered migration flows between regions of the Russian Federation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 21(1), pages 35-55.
    3. Yuri Andrienko & Sergei Guriev, 2004. "Determinants of interregional mobility in Russia," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, March.
    4. Yuriy Davidovich Schmidt & Olga Nikolaevna Lobodina, 2015. "Some Approaches to Modeling the Spatial Diffusion of Innovations," Spatial Economics=Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, Economic Research Institute, Far Eastern Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences (Khabarovsk, Russia), issue 2, pages 103-115.
    5. Silaghi, Monica Ioana & Ghatak, Subrata, 2011. "Why do not They Move from Rural to Urban Areas? Inter-Regional Migration in Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-158, March.
    6. Annette N. Brown, 1997. "The Economic Determinants of the Internal Migration Flows in Russia During Transition," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 89, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ksenia Shvorina & Larisa Faleychik, 2018. "Main Directions of Migration Mobility in the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(2), pages 485-501.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vakulenko, Elena, 2012. "Migration in Russian cities: Econometric analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 25(1), pages 25-50.
    2. E. S. Vakulenko, 2016. "Econometric analysis of factors of internal migration in Russia," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 344-356, October.
    3. Aleksey Oshchepkov, 2007. "Are Interregional Wage Differentials in Russia Compensative?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 750, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Berger, Mark C. & Blomquist, Glenn C. & Sabirianova Peter, Klara, 2008. "Compensating differentials in emerging labor and housing markets: Estimates of quality of life in Russian cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 25-55, January.
    5. Vakulenko, Elena & Mkrtchyan , Nikita & Furmanov, Kirill, 2011. "Modeling registered migration flows between regions of the Russian Federation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 21(1), pages 35-55.
    6. Vakulenko, Elena & Leukhin, Roman, 2015. "Investigation of demand for the foreign workforce in Russian regions using applications for quotas," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 37(1), pages 67-86.
    7. Sascha Sardadvar & Elena Vakulenko, 2017. "A model of interregional migration under the presence of natural resources: theory and evidence from Russia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 59(2), pages 535-569, September.
    8. Vakulenko, Elena, 2019. "Motives for internal migration in Russia: what has changed in recent years?," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 113-138.
    9. Keigo Nishida, 2014. "Agricultural productivity differences and credit market imperfections," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 1262-1276, December.
    10. Katja Mueller & Michael J. Bradshaw, 2006. "OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 105-125, June.
    11. Lazareva Olga, 2006. "Firm-paid vs. worker-paid on-the-job training in Russia: Determinants and returns," EERC Working Paper Series 06-05e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    12. Michaelides, Panayotis & Milios, John, 2009. "TFP change, output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994-2006)," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 339-352, July.
    13. Aaron Mehrotra & Jouko Rautava, 2008. "Do sentiment indicators help to assess and predict actual developments of the Chinese economy?," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 225-239.
    14. Guriev, Sergei & Vakulenko, Elena, 2015. "Breaking out of poverty traps: Internal migration and interregional convergence in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 633-649.
    15. Barbara Dietz & Kseniia Gatskova & Achim Schmillen, 2011. "Migration and Remittances in Kazakhstan: First Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers 304, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    16. Vakulenko, Elena (Вакуленко, Елена) & Leukhin, Roman (Леухин, Роман), 2016. "Whether the foreign workers are discriminated in the Russian labor market? [Дискриминируются Ли Иностранные Работники На Российском Рынке Труда?]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 121-142, February.
    17. Michálek Anton & Podolák Peter, 2011. "Impact of Key Socio-Economic Disparities on Migration in Slovakia: Economic Diversification vs. Traditional Pattern," European Spatial Research and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 71-87, May.
    18. Sergei Guriev & Elena Vakulenko, 2012. "Convergence between Russian regions," Working Papers w0180, New Economic School (NES).
    19. Dean Fantazzini & Julia Pushchelenko & Alexey Mironenkov & Alexey Kurbatskii, 2021. "Forecasting Internal Migration in Russia Using Google Trends: Evidence from Moscow and Saint Petersburg," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-30, October.
    20. Ickes, Barry W. & Ofer, Gur, 2006. "The political economy of structural change in Russia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 409-434, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2017:i:1:p:126-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alexey Naydenov (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economyofregion.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.