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A Longer Look at Dividend Yields

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Author Info
Goetzmann, William N
Jorion, Philippe

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Abstract

This article reexamines the evidence on the ability of dividend yields to predict long-horizon stock returns. The authors use two new series beginning in 1871, a monthly series for the United States, and an annual series for the United Kingdom. Conditional on survival over the entire 122 years, dividend yields display only marginal ability to predict stock market returns in either country. The authors also argue that tests over long periods may be affected by survivorship. Simulations show that regression statistics based on a sample drawn solely from surviving markets can be seriously biased toward finding predictability. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 68 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 483-508
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:68:y:1995:i:4:p:483-508

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  1. Lutz Kilian & Silvia Goncalves, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 196, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Samih Antoine Azar, 2004. "Excess volatility in the US stock market: evidence to the contrary," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(18), pages 1307-1311, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Antje Henne & Sebastian Ostrowski & Peter Reichling, 2007. "Dividend Yield and Stability versus Performance at the German Stock Market," FEMM Working Papers 07017, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  5. Greg Filbeck, Sue Visscher, 1997. "Dividend yield strategies in the British stock market," European Journal of Finance, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 277-289, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. J. Annaert & W. Van Hyfte, 2006. "Long-Horizon Mean Reversion for the Brussels Stock Exchange: Evidence for the 19th Century," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 06/376, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Min Hwang & John Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals in Local Housing Markets: Evidence from U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series 1050, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy. [Downloadable!]
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  10. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "Re-emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 5906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. William N. Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1997. "A Century of Global Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 5901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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