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Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility

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Author Info
John M. Maheu (University of Toronto)
Thomas H. McCurdy (University of Toronto and CIRANO)

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Abstract

This paper investigates nonlinear features of FX volatility dynamics using estimates of daily volatility based on the sum of intraday squared returns. Measurement errors associated with using realized volatility to estimate ex post latent volatility imply that standard time series models of the conditional variance become variants of an ARMAX model. We explore nonlinear departures from these linear specifications using a doubly stochastic process under duration-dependent mixing. This process can capture large abrupt changes in the level of volatility, time-varying persistence, and time-varying variance of volatility. The results have implications for forecast precision, hedging, and pricing of derivatives. Copyright (c) 2002 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 84 (2002)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 668-681
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:84:y:2002:i:4:p:668-681

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Suhejla Hoiti & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Michael McAleer & Daniel Slottje, 2005. "Measuring the Volatility in U.S. Treasury Benchmarks and Debt Instruments," DEA Working Papers 14, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ngo Van Long & Koji Shimomura, 2002. "Relative Wealth, Status Seeking, and Catching Up," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-09, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2001. "Incentives in Common Agency," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-66, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "ARMA Representation of Integrated and Realized Variances," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-93, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Julie Doonan & Paul Lanoie & Benoit Laplante, 2002. "Environmental Performance of Canadian Pulp and Paper Plants: Why Some Do Well and Others Do Not ?," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-24, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2000. "Econometric analysis of realised volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W4, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford, revised 05 Jul 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Lars Forsberg & Tim Bollerslev, 2002. "Bridging the gap between the distribution of realized (ECU) volatility and ARCH modelling (of the Euro): the GARCH-NIG model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 535-548. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2002. "Variational Sums and Power Variation: a unifying approach to model selection and estimation in semimartingale models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy, 2007. "Modeling foreign exchange rates with jumps," Working Papers tecipa-279, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Richard Lajeunesse & Paul Lanoie & Michel Patry, 2001. "Environmental Regulation and Productivity: New Findings on the Porter Analysis," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-53, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  12. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/3, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Nour Meddahi, 2001. "A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated andRealized Volatilities / A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-71, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  14. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2003. "Estimation of Integrated Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  15. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2007. "Are there Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Working Papers tecipa-304, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Realised power variation and stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  17. Chun Liu & John M Maheu, 2008. "Forecasting Realized Volatility: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers tecipa-313, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. John Galbraith & Victoria Zinde-Walsh, 2001. "Properties of Estimates of Daily GARCH Parameters Basaed on Intra-Day Observations," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-15, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2004. "Information flow between volatilities across time scales," MPRA Paper 10355, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  20. Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk & Michiel de Pooter, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting S&P 500 Volatility: Long Memory, Structural Breaks and Nonlinearity," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-067/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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