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Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle

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Chang-Jin Kim
Charles R. Nelson

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Abstract

We hope to answer three questions: Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth towards stabilization? If so, when? What is the nature of this structural break? We employ a Bayesian approach to identify a structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markov-switching model of the business cycle. Empirical results suggest a break in GDP growth toward stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date at 1984:1. Furthermore, we find a narrowing gap between growth rates during recessions and booms that is at least as important as any decline in the volatility of shocks. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog

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Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 81 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 608-616
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:608-616

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