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Does Money Matter in Canada? Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model

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  • Ambler, Steve

Abstract

This paper investigates the statistical properties of a set of Canadian and U.S. economic time series and uses the data to address the question of the importance of monetary variables in Canadian business cycle fluctuations. The individual time series are found to contain unit roots, but the data reveal the existence of several economically meaningful cointegrating vectors. A multivariate vector error correction model is estimated, and Canadian velocity, which appears as an error correction term, is significant in the Canadian output equation. This supports the contention that monetary variables have predictive content for real output. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

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  • Ambler, Steve, 1989. "Does Money Matter in Canada? Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 651-658, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:4:p:651-58
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    Cited by:

    1. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    2. Yu, Qiao, 1997. "Economic Fluctuation, Macro Control, and Monetary Policy in the Transitional Chinese Economy," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 180-195, October.
    3. Thomas W. Gilligan & Subrata Sarkar, 1998. "Statistical Causality and Strategic Behavior in Industrial Markets," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 183-208, June.
    4. Ambler, Steve, 1989. "La stationnarité en économétrie et en macroéconomique : un guide pour les non initiés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 65(4), pages 590-609, décembre.
    5. Killins, Robert N. & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2022. "Politics and equity markets: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Can family-planning programs "cause" a significant fertility decline in countries characterized by very low levels of socioeconomic development? New evidence from Bangladesh based on dynamic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 441-468, August.
    7. Theodore Joyce & Naci Mocan, 1993. "Unemployment and Infant Health: Time-Series Evidence from the State of Tennessee," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(1), pages 185-203.
    8. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    9. Ansari, M. I., 2002. "Impact of financial development, money, and public spending on Malaysian national income: an econometric study," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 72-93.
    10. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1998. "The international transmission of economic fluctuations:: Effects of U.S. business cycles on the Canadian economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 257-287, April.
    11. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
    12. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    13. Deborah Gefang, 2012. "Money‐output Causality Revisited – A Bayesian Logistic Smooth Transition VECM Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(1), pages 131-151, February.
    14. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    15. Maganya, Mnaku H. & Ndanshau, Michael O. A., 2020. "Money and Output in Tanzania: A Test for Causality," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 8(2), July.
    16. Nasir M. Khilji & Se-Young Bae, 1991. "Output Effects of Unanticipated Money Growth in Asia," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 451-461, Oct-Dec.
    17. Baffes, John & Shah, Anwar, 1990. "Taxing choices in deficit reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 556, The World Bank.
    18. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
    19. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    20. Killins, Robert N. & Egly, Peter V. & Escobari, Diego, 2017. "The impact of oil shocks on the housing market: Evidence from Canada and U.S," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 15-28.
    21. Souki, Kaouthar, 2008. "Assessing the effects of U.S. shocks on the Canadian economy using alternative identification methods," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 193-213, August.
    22. Zeinab Partow, 1995. "Una Investigación Empírica sobre el Impacto de la Inflación en el Crecimiento Económico de Colombia 1951-1992," Borradores de Economia 017, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    23. Ansari, M. I. & Ahmed, S. M., 2007. "Does money matter? Evidence from vector error-correction for Mexico," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 185-202, September.
    24. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1997. "A comparative analysis of the propagation of stock market fluctuations in alternative models of dynamic causal linkages," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 59-74.

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