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Civil Wars and International Trade

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Author Info
Philippe Martin
Thierry Mayer
Mathias Thoenig

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Abstract

This article analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then identify two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: It may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at risk during civil wars, but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade during civil wars. We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower-scale conflicts. (JEL: F10, F51, F52, F59) (c) 2008 by the European Economic Association.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.2-3.541
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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.

Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04-05)
Pages: 541-550
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:jeurec:v:6:y:2008:i:2-3:p:541-550

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F51 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
F52 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
F59 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - Other

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory Hess, 2004. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Thoenig, Mathias, 2005. "Make Trade not War?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5218, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2008-12-19.

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