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Estimation and demographic analysis of COVID-19 infections with respect to weather factors in Europe

Author

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  • Reza Gharoie Ahangar
  • Robert Pavur
  • Mahdi Fathi
  • Abdulazeez Shaik

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between the COVID-19 and the weather factors of the most populated and industrialised countries in Europe and propose the best mathematical model to forecast the daily number of COVID-19 cases. To find the relationship between the COVID-19 and the weather factors of absolute humidity and temperature in Spain, France, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we conducted a Poisson analysis. We also used the General Linear Neural Network (GRNN) model to forecast the trend and number of daily COVID-19 cases in these European countries. The results reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between the number of COVID-19 infections and weather factors of temperature & absolute humidity. Furthermore, the results show a stronger negative relationship between COVID-19 and absolute humidity than temperature. In our proposed GRNN method, we find better compatibility for the COVID-19 cases in Italy relative to the other European countries in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Gharoie Ahangar & Robert Pavur & Mahdi Fathi & Abdulazeez Shaik, 2020. "Estimation and demographic analysis of COVID-19 infections with respect to weather factors in Europe," Journal of Business Analytics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 93-106, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tjbaxx:v:3:y:2020:i:2:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1080/2573234X.2020.1832866
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