Fear of punishment as a driver of survey misreporting and item non-response in Russia and its neighbors

Following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government sharply broadened what actions were illegal and raised the level of punishment. Many more topics of interest to survey researchers became politically sensitive. Questions about these topics may generate high levels of misleading responses and question-specific (item) non-responses, both of which introduce biases that undermine inference. We use survey data from 2015 and 2018 in Russia and neighboring countries to illustrate how these two problems were already issues prior to the invasion, especially for questions that invoked potential punishment by the state. In a climate of heightened state punishment, it becomes even more important to address misresponse and item non-response when interpreting survey data. We argue that, in addition to employing list experiments regularly and taking advantage of recent innovations in their design, scholars must develop ways to reduce item non-response and model how it biases estimates of interest.