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Time series momentum and moving average trading rules

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  • Ben R. Marshall
  • Nhut H. Nguyen
  • Nuttawat Visaltanachoti

Abstract

We compare and contrast time series momentum (TSMOM) and moving average (MA) trading rules so as to better understand the sources of their profitability. These rules are closely related; however, there are important differences. TSMOM signals occur at points that coincide with a MA direction change, whereas MA buy (sell) signals only require price to move above (below) a MA. Our empirical results show MA rules frequently give earlier signals leading to meaningful return gains. Both rules perform best outside of large stock series which may explain the puzzle of their popularity with investors, yet lack of supportive evidence in academic studies.

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  • Ben R. Marshall & Nhut H. Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2017. "Time series momentum and moving average trading rules," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 405-421, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:3:p:405-421
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1205209
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    Cited by:

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    3. Day, Min-Yuh & Ni, Yensen, 2023. "Be greedy when others are fearful: Evidence from a two-decade assessment of the NDX 100 and S&P 500 indexes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Market Timing with Moving Averages," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Chang, C-L. & Hsu, S.-H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-18, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Giner, Javier, 2022. "Time series momentum in the US stock market: Empirical evidence and theoretical analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    7. Yafeng Qin & Guoyao Pan & Min Bai, 2020. "Improving market timing of time series momentum in the Chinese stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(43), pages 4711-4725, September.
    8. Ilomäki, J. & Laurila, H. & McAleer, M.J., 2018. "Simple Market Timing with Moving Averages," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2018-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Hung, Chiayu & Lai, Hung-Neng, 2022. "Information asymmetry and the profitability of technical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Valeriy Zakamulin & Javier Giner, 2020. "Trend following with momentum versus moving averages: a tale of differences," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 985-1007, June.
    11. Souropanis, Ioannis & Vivian, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with wavelet decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Osman Kilic & Joseph M. Marks & Kiseok Nam, 2022. "Predictable asset price dynamics, risk-return tradeoff, and investor behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 749-791, August.
    13. Ergun, Lerby & Molchanov, Alexander & Stork, Philip, 2023. "Technical trading rules, loss avoidance, and the business cycle," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Kyziropoulos, Panagiotis E. & O’Brien, John & O’Reilly, Philip & Sharma, Tripti, 2022. "Technical trading rule profitability in currencies: It’s all about momentum," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    16. Massoud Metghalchi & Linda A. Hayes & Farhang Niroomand, 2019. "A technical approach to equity investing in emerging markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 389-403, July.
    17. Kerstin Lamert & Benjamin R. Auer & Ralf Wunderlich, 2023. "Discretization of continuous-time arbitrage strategies in financial markets with fractional Brownian motion," Papers 2311.15635, arXiv.org.
    18. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Moving Average Market Timing in European Energy Markets: Production Versus Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, November.
    19. Zakamulin, Valeriy & Giner, Javier, 2023. "Optimal trend-following with transaction costs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. Hubert Dichtl, 2020. "Investing in the S&P 500 index: Can anything beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 352-378, April.
    21. Hu, Shicheng & Zhang, Weijie & Li, Danping & Wu, Bing, 2023. "Incorporating improved directional change and regime change detection to formulate trading strategies in foreign exchange markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 622(C).

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