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Financial development, fiscal policy and volatility: Their effects on growth

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  • Cesar M. Rodriguez

Abstract

This paper analyzes how fiscal policies and credit constraints can affect the impact of macroeconomic volatility on long-run growth. The model by Aghion et al. (2005) is extended by allowing for governmental fiscal policy over the business cycle. The analysis shows that in an economy facing credit constraints, an increase in volatility will result in lower mean growth, and all the more the less financially developed and the more procyclical the fiscal policy is. The main implication is that in countries with lower degrees of financial development, countercyclical fiscal policies are particularly important in reducing the negative consequences of adverse aggregate shocks on firms' long-run investments. An empirical analysis is finally conducted using different groups of countries that confirm the theoretical predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesar M. Rodriguez, 2014. "Financial development, fiscal policy and volatility: Their effects on growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 223-266, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jitecd:v:23:y:2014:i:2:p:223-266
    DOI: 10.1080/09638199.2012.711014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Aghion & Ioana Marinescu, 2008. "Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn from OECD Panel Data?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 251-278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2003. "Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients With the VC Program," Discussion Papers in Economics 34, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    2. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2022. "The finance-growth nexus in Latin America and the Caribbean: A meta-analytic perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Brüeckner,Markus & Carneiro,Francisco Galrao, 2015. "The effects of volatility, fiscal policy cyclicality and financial development on growth : evidence for the Eastern Caribbean," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7507, The World Bank.
    5. IWASAKI, Ichiro & ONO, Shigeki, 2023. "Economic Development and the Finance-Growth Nexus : A Meta-Analytic Approach," CEI Working Paper Series 2023-06, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

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