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Fiscal Reforms and the Fiscal Effects of Aid in Uganda

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  • Thomas Bwire
  • Tim Lloyd
  • Oliver Morrissey

Abstract

Uganda implemented public expenditure and revenue management reforms from the early 1990s with specific aims of improving budget planning and aligning aid with fiscal priorities. The dynamic relationship between aid and domestic fiscal aggregates is analysed using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive model with annual data for 1972–2008 and quarterly data for 1997–2014. Aid has been a significant element of long-run fiscal equilibrium, associated with increased tax effort and public spending and reduced domestic borrowing. Fiscal reforms have improved aid and expenditure management, contributing to improved fiscal performance in Uganda, with lessons for other African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Bwire & Tim Lloyd & Oliver Morrissey, 2017. "Fiscal Reforms and the Fiscal Effects of Aid in Uganda," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1019-1036, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:53:y:2017:i:7:p:1019-1036
    DOI: 10.1080/00220388.2017.1303677
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ritva Reinikka & Paul Collier, 2001. "Uganda's Recovery : The Role of Farms, Firms, and Government," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13850, December.
    2. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, Decembrie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Morrissey & Lionel Roger & Lars Spreng, 2019. "Aid and exchange rates in sub-Saharan Africa: No more Dutch Disease?," Discussion Papers 2019-07, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    2. Asongu, Simplice & Ezeaku, Hillary, 2020. "Aid Grants vs. Technical Cooperation Grants: Implications for Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1984-2018," MPRA Paper 107528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mawejje, Joseph & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "The determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from East Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 55-70.
    4. Giulia Mascagni & Emilija Timmis, 2017. "The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1037-1056, July.
    5. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "The determinants of fiscal deficits: a survey of literature," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 403-417, September.
    6. Roger, Lionel, 2019. "A replication of "The long-run impact of foreign aid in 36 African countries: Insights from multivariate time series analysis" (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2014)," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-53.
    7. Abrams M.E. Tagem, 2017. "The economics and politics of foreign aid and domestic revenue," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-180, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Uganda's fiscal policy reforms: What have we learned?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 89-107, June.
    9. Jose L. Diaz‐Sanchez & Abrams M. E. Tagem & Joana Mota, 2022. "Tax revenue effort and aid in fragile states: The case of Comoros," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(2), pages 175-195, June.
    10. Cohen, Isabelle, 2023. "Crowd in or crowd out? The subnational fiscal response to aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Joseph Mawejje & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Macroeconomic determinants of fiscal policy in East Africa: a panel causality analysis," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 27(53), pages 105-123, February.
    12. Giulia Mascagni & Emilija Timmis, 2017. "The Fiscal Effects of Aid in Ethiopia: Evidence from CVAR Applications," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1037-1056, July.
    13. Abrams M. E. Tagem, 2023. "The dynamic effects of aid and taxes on government spending," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(6), pages 1656-1687, December.

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