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Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Eduardo Amaral Haddad
  • Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli
  • Edson Paulo Domingues
  • Mauricio Aguiar

Abstract

This paper uses a fully operational inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by Haddad and Hewings, in order to assess the likely economic effects of road transportation policy changes in Brazil. Among the features embedded in this framework, modelling of external scale economies and transportation costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. The model is calibrated for 109 regions. The explicit modelling of transportation costs built into the inter-regional CGE model, based on origin-destination flows, which takes into account the spatial structure of the Brazilian economy, creates the capability of integrating the inter-regional CGE model with a geo-coded transportation network model enhancing the potential of the framework in understanding the role of infrastructure on regional development. The transportation model used is the so-called Highway Development and Management, developed by the World Bank, implemented using the software TransCAD. Further extensions of the current model specification for integrating other features of transport planning in a continental industrialising country like Brazil are discussed, with the goal of building a bridge between conventional transport planning practices and the innovative use of CGE models. In order to illustrate the analytical power of the integrated system, the authors present a set of simulations, which evaluate the ex ante economic impacts of physical/qualitative changes in the Brazilian road network (for example, a highway improvement), in accordance with recent policy developments in Brazil. Rather than providing a critical evaluation of this debate, they intend to emphasise the likely structural impacts of such policies. They expect that the results will reinforce the need to better specifying spatial interactions in inter-regional CGE models.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Edson Paulo Domingues & Mauricio Aguiar, 2011. "Assessing the ex ante economic impacts of transportation infrastructure policies in Brazil," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 44-61.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevef:v:3:y:2011:i:1:p:44-61
    DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2010.545891
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Toshihiko Miyagi, 2001. "Economic Appraisal for Multiregional Impacts by a Large-scale Expressway Project," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-066/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Tourinho, Octávio Augusto Fontes & Kume, Honorio & Pedroso, Ana Cristina, 2007. "Elasticidades de Armington para o Brasil: 1986-2002," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 61(2), November.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dennis Gaus & Heike Link, 2020. "Economic Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Quantity and Quality: A Study of German Counties," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1848, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Dina N. Elshahawany & Eduardo A. Haddad & Michael L. Lahr, 2017. "Accessibility, transportation cost, and regional growth: a case study for Egypt," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 256-277, July.
    4. Haddad, Eduardo & Azzoni, Carlos & Puty Filho, Silvestre & Cardoso, Hélio & Domingues, Edson, 2011. "Impactos Socioeconômicos de Grandes Investimentos em Transportes no Estado do Pará," TD NEREUS 6-2011, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    5. Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Porsse, Alexandre A. & Van Leeuwen, Eveline S. & Vieira, Renato S., 2015. "The underground economy: Tracking the higher-order economic impacts of the São Paulo Subway System," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 18-30.
    6. Dias, Lucas & Haddad, Eduardo & Maggi, Andrés, 2020. "Optimal Road Network and the Gains from Intranational Trade," TD NEREUS 15-2020, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    7. Eduardo A. Haddad & Jesús P. Mena-Chalco, Otavio J. G. Sidone, 2015. "Scholarly Collaboration in Regional Science in Developing Countries: The Case of the Brazilian REAL Network," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Edson Paulo Domingues & Kênia Barreiro de Souza, 2012. "The Welfare Impacts of Changes in the Brazilian Domestic Work Market," One Pager 180, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    9. Haddad, Eduardo & Lahr, Michael & Elshahawany, Dina & Vassallo, Moises, 2014. "Regional Analysis of Domestic Integration in Egypt," TD NEREUS 1-2015, Núcleo de Economia Regional e Urbana da Universidade de São Paulo (NEREUS).
    10. Diana N. Elshahawany & Eduardo A. Haddd, Michael L. Lahr, 2015. "The Potential Economic Impacts of the Proposed Development Corridor in Egypt: An Interregional CGE Approach," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_42, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    11. Henrik Hansen & Ole Winckler Andersen & Howard White, 2011. "Impact evaluation of infrastructure interventions," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1-8.
    12. Isnawati Hidayah & Imam Mukhlis, 2019. "Dana Desa on clean water and sanitation access in Indonesia: Does Cash-for-work (PKT) matter?," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 9512011, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    13. Rokicki, Bartlomiej & Stępniak, Marcin, 2018. "Major transport infrastructure investment and regional economic development – An accessibility-based approach," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-49.
    14. Betarelli, Admir Antonio & Domingues, Edson Paulo & Hewings, Geoffrey John Dennis, 2020. "Transport policy, rail freight sector and market structure: The economic effects in Brazil," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-23.
    15. Luiz Carlos De Santana Ribeiro & Edson Paulo Domingues & Fernando Salgueiro Perobelli & Geoffrey John Dennis Hewings, 2018. "Structuring investment and regional inequalities in the Brazilian Northeast," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 727-739, May.
    16. Eduardo A. Haddad & Jesús P. Mena-Chalco & Otávio J. G. Sidone, 2017. "Scholarly Collaboration in Regional Science in Developing Countries," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(5), pages 500-529, September.
    17. Bartlomiej Rokicki & Eduardo A. Haddad & Jonathan M. Horridge & Marcin Stępniak, 2021. "Accessibility in the regional CGE framework: the effects of major transport infrastructure investments in Poland," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 747-772, April.
    18. Eduardo Amaral Haddad & Mahmoud Arbouch & Ademir A. Rocha & Vinicius A. Vale, 2022. "Valuing the Economic Cost of Remoteness: A Case Study of the Tiznit-Dakhla Expressway in Morocco," Research papers & Policy papers 1957, Policy Center for the New South.

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