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The Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending: Evidence from Sectoral FDI Data

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  • Michael Breen
  • Patrick J. W. Egan

Abstract

Our study contributes to the search for the elusive catalytic effect of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending on inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI). Recent scholarship has found that the catalytic effect is conditional on political regime and program stringency. We contribute to this literature by developing and testing a theory which describes how the catalytic effect also varies by economic sector. This is a departure from existing studies, which have tended to focus on aggregate FDI flows after crises. Our findings corroborate previous research, which finds that in general IMF lending has a substantial and negative effect on FDI. However, we find that the negative effect is concentrated in sectors that are highly dependent on external capital and have low sunk costs in the host country. Our findings are robust to several alternative explanations common in IMF literature, namely the importance of IMF program design and the ability of governments to make credible commitments to reform. Substantively, our findings suggest that investors are more likely to use IMF lending as an escape hatch in countries where FDI is dependent on external capital and has low sunk costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Breen & Patrick J. W. Egan, 2019. "The Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending: Evidence from Sectoral FDI Data," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 447-473, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ginixx:v:45:y:2019:i:3:p:447-473
    DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2019.1582530
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Krahnke, Tobias, 2020. "Doing more with less: The catalytic function of IMF lending and the role of program size," Discussion Papers 18/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Bernhard Reinsberg & Thomas Stubbs & Alexander Kentikelenis, 2022. "Compliance, defiance, and the dependency trap: International Monetary Fund program interruptions and their impact on capital markets," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 1022-1041, October.
    3. Chungshik Moon & Byungwon Woo, 2022. "Curse of friendship: IMF programme, friendship with the United States and foreign direct investment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2188-2221, July.
    4. Ayşe Y. Evrensel & Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2023. "Compliance with IMF conditions and economic growth," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4401-4420, December.
    5. Kern, Andreas & Nosrati, Elias & Reinsberg, Bernhard & Sevinc, Dilek, 2023. "Crash for cash: Offshore financial destinations and IMF programs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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