Post-Soviet developments: reflections on complexity and patterns of political orders

With the striking exception of the three Baltic States, the post-Soviet space unites in its incapacity to make a modern democratic state function. This incapacity is not just a marginal phenomenon but tends to be a syndrome. Against this background, this article addresses two interrelated questions. The first part develops a theoretical argument concerning post-Soviet developments, anchored in social theory. It underlines that how well democratic and legal institutions are going to function is determined, partly but not only, by the level of general social differentiation in a given society at the time of the introduction of these institutions. For such complexity to develop, a central state with a certain level of institutionalization, and with infrastructural, and not primarily repressive, capacity, is a necessary precondition. The second, empirical, part tries then to identify the variation that nevertheless exists in terms of democracy, state capacity and rule of law, between the post-Soviet states. As the recent, and promising, case of Georgia demonstrates, the crucial post-Soviet challenge is to break monolithic power structures. By increasing economic autonomy, a process that also strengthens societal complexity can start to evolve.