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Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty

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  • Rodney Fort
  • Young H. Lee

Abstract

We extend the literature on unbiased estimators of sports league outcomes to include outcome uncertainty. While competitive balance and outcome uncertainty are related, generally, they are not the same thing. We show that an extant unbiased estimator of competitive balance, and our new unbiased estimator of outcome uncertainty, bear this out. The impacts on both competitive balance and outcome uncertainty, moving from a balanced to an unbalanced schedule, are demonstrated via numerical analysis. Finally, the unbiased estimators are employed to test the implications of our numerical analysis on the move by the Scottish Professional Football League to an unbalanced schedule. Results conform to our simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodney Fort & Young H. Lee, 2020. "Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(51), pages 5629-5638, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:51:p:5629-5638
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1770191
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Young Hoon Lee & Rodney Fort, 2023. "Division Play and Outcome Uncertainty in Sports Leagues," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(5), pages 639-663, June.
    2. Hayley Jang & Doyoung Kim & Young Hoon Lee, 2023. "Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis: Theoretical Development and Empirical Evaluation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(3), pages 271-291, May.
    3. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills & Younghoon Lee, 2022. "Moments of Competitive Balance in Major League Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(3), pages 329-354, April.
    4. Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2024. "The Effect of League Design on Club Revenues in the Scottish Premier League," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 1-28, January.

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