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Monetary union in Latin America: an assessment in the context of optimum currency area

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  • Kurt A. Hafner
  • Lennart Kampe

Abstract

The article applies the optimum currency area (OCA) theory to Latin America to assess the potential of a monetary union in Latin America and in its major existing regional trade agreements (RTAs). According to OCA criteria we find that Latin America is far from being an optimum currency area, as its countries’ exposure to asymmetric shocks is high and their capacities to adjust in response to macroeconomic disturbances are limited. Using a panel of 20 Latin American countries from 1990 to 2014, we apply the dynamic OLS estimation techniques to estimate the costs and benefits of a potential monetary union in Latin America and in its various RTAs. to estimate the costs and benefits of a potential monetary union in Latin America and in its various RTAs. We find that the costs are high, because Latin America’s economies are vulnerable to severe macroeconomic disturbances and its RTAs differ significantly in their response to negative demand shocks. Most of the monetary efficiency gains are shown to be the result of a common restrictive monetary policy which would result in higher FDI inflows and, to a more limited extent, increased GDP, both overall and per capita. Although Central American countries are shown to be most suitable for further monetary integration, we conclude that Latin American countries should head first towards greater economic and political integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurt A. Hafner & Lennart Kampe, 2018. "Monetary union in Latin America: an assessment in the context of optimum currency area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5672-5697, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:52:p:5672-5697
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1489116
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    Cited by:

    1. León Padilla & Ángel Rodriguez García-Brazales, 2021. "Can South America form an optimal monetary area? A structural vector autoregression analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 309-329, May.
    2. Mervan Selçuk & Şakir Görmüş, 2022. "Is a Monetary Union Feasible for D-8 Countries? An Examination in The Framework of The Optimum Currency Area," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 75-101, January.
    3. Soós, Károly Attila, 2021. "Az optimális valutaövezet két elmélete - aszimmetrikus sokkok és nemzetközi pénzügyi integráció [Principles of optimal currency areas: asymmetric shocks and international financial integration]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1250-1275.

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