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Oil prices and economic downturns: the case of Spain

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  • Isidro Frías-Pinedo
  • Rosario Díaz-Vázquez
  • Ana Iglesias-Casal

Abstract

We address the macroeconomic effects of an oil price shock in Spain. We apply a vector autoregression model (VAR) analysis to quarterly data for the Spanish economy since 1986, to elucidate the effects of variations in the oil price on the economy, considering the three main causes of disruptions in the oil markets: oil supply shocks, oil demand shocks and oil-specific (precautionary) demand shocks. We conclude that the effects in Spain strongly depend on the type of shock: the consumer price index (CPI) has mainly been influenced by oil demand shocks; output has only reacted to oil supply shocks; and monetary policy has mainly reacted after precautionary shocks. Second-round effects caused by the behaviour of nominal wages have not been found. Additionally, we discuss two facts: the ability of firms to increase markups in a context of rising demand and the procyclical role of monetary policy when faced with oil demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Isidro Frías-Pinedo & Rosario Díaz-Vázquez & Ana Iglesias-Casal, 2017. "Oil prices and economic downturns: the case of Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(16), pages 1637-1654, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:16:p:1637-1654
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1223822
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    2. Umar, Zaghum & Aharon, David Y. & Esparcia, Carlos & AlWahedi, Wafa, 2022. "Spillovers between sovereign yield curve components and oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Nyakundi M. Michieka & Richard S. Gearhart, 2022. "Oil price changes and wages: a nonlinear and asymmetric approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-71, February.
    4. Ordóñez, Javier & Monfort, Mercedes & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2019. "Oil prices, unemployment and the financial crisis in oil-importing countries: The case of Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 625-634.

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