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What explains long memory in futures price volatility?

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  • G. J. Power
  • C. Turvey

Abstract

Long memory in futures price volatility is a well-documented stylized fact with implications for market efficiency, risk management, forecasting and option pricing bias. The implications of long-memory differ, however, based on whether it is of a 'fractional' or of a 'stochastic' type. The aims of this article are to determine, in the case of agricultural commodity futures data, which type better describes price volatility and also to evaluate several competing explanations for findings of long memory. The evidence presented here finds little support for three out of four potential explanations, namely, excessive noise in the volatility measure, bias in the long-memory estimator and understated SEs of the long-memory parameter. For the data considered, price volatility appears to be most likely generated by a nonfractional long-memory process such as a stochastic break or stochastic unit root.

Suggested Citation

  • G. J. Power & C. Turvey, 2011. "What explains long memory in futures price volatility?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(24), pages 3395-3404.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:24:p:3395-3404
    DOI: 10.1080/00036841003636300
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Simple (but Effective) Tests Of Long Memory Versus Structural Breaks," Working Paper 1101, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    2. Peter Fortune, 1998. "Weekends can be rough: revisiting the weekend effect in stock prices," Working Papers 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shalini, Velappan & Prasanna, Krishna, 2016. "Impact of the financial crisis on Indian commodity markets: Structural breaks and volatility dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 40-57.

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