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Market power and hot air in international emissions trading: the impacts of US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol

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  • Christoph BOhringer
  • Andreas LOschel

Abstract

Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992 the industrialized world is finally likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which will impose legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions on the developed world. However, the Kyoto Protocol will enter into force without the USA, which withdrew under President Bush in March 2001. Accounting for hot air and market power of the Former Soviet Union on emission permit markets, it is shown that US withdrawal has important consequences on environmental effectiveness, compliance costs, and excess costs of market power under the Kyoto Protocol. Non-compliance of the USA implies a dramatic decrease in environmental effectiveness as well as compliance costs of OECD countries whereas the Former Soviet Union and transitional economies in Eastern Europe suffer from a huge decline in permit sales revenues. Excess costs of market power in permit trade increase in relative terms, but decline substantially in absolute terms due to US withdrawal. Policy options are quantified to bypass the problems of hot air and market power through compensation mechanisms.

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  • Christoph BOhringer & Andreas LOschel, 2003. "Market power and hot air in international emissions trading: the impacts of US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 651-663.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:6:p:651-663
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684021000035818
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    Cited by:

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    3. Löschel, Andreas & Lange, Andreas & Hoffmann, Tim & Böhringer, Christoph & Moslener, Ulf, 2004. "Assessing Emission Allocation in Europe: An Interactive Simulation Approach," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-40, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    4. Cason, Timothy N. & Gangadharan, Lata, 2011. "Price discovery and intermediation in linked emissions trading markets: A laboratory study," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(7), pages 1424-1433, May.
    5. Klepper, Gernot & Peterson, Sonja, 2006. "Marginal abatement cost curves in general equilibrium: The influence of world energy prices," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-23, January.
    6. Carbone, Jared C. & Helm, Carsten & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2009. "The case for international emission trade in the absence of cooperative climate policy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 266-280, November.
    7. Catherine Leining & Judd Ormsby & Suzi Kerr, 2017. "Evolution of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: Linking," Working Papers 17_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    8. Wei, Chu & Löschel, Andreas & Liu, Bing, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the CO2 shadow price in Chinese thermal power enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 22-31.
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    10. Böhringer, Christoph & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2009. "Strategic partitioning of emission allowances under the EU Emission Trading Scheme," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 182-197, August.
    11. Ying Fan & Xu Wang, 2014. "Which Sectors Should Be Included in the Ets in the Context of a Unified Carbon Market in China?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 25(3-4), pages 613-634, April.
    12. Bjart J. Holtsmark & Knut H. Alfsen, 2004. "Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol without Russian participation," Discussion Papers 376, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    13. FitzGerald, John & Bergin, Adele & Conefrey, Thomas & Diffney, Sean & Duffy, David & Kearney, Ide & Lyons, Sean & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Mayor, Karen & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Medium-Term Review 2008-2015, No. 11," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number MTR11, August.
    14. Lopez, Ramon E., 2009. "World Economic Crises in Times of Environmental Scarcity and Wealth Concentration," Working Papers 56408, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    15. Hagem, Cathrine & Westskog, Hege, 2006. "Distributional constraints and efficiency in a tradable permit market," Memorandum 09/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    16. Larson, Donald F. & Ambrosi, Philippe & Dinar, Ariel & Rahman, Shaikh Mahfuzur & Entler, Rebecca, 2008. "Carbon markets, institutions, policies, and research," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4761, The World Bank.
    17. Flachsland, Christian & Marschinski, Robert & Edenhofer, Ottmar, 2009. "Global trading versus linking: Architectures for international emissions trading," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1637-1647, May.
    18. Schmidt, Robert C. & Marschinski, Robert, 2010. "Can China benefit from adopting a binding emissions target?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3763-3770, July.
    19. Julien Chevallier, 2009. "Intertemporal Emissions Trading and Allocation Rules: Gainers, Losers and the Spectre of Market Power," Working Papers halshs-00124713, HAL.

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