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Real exchange rates: evidence from black markets using fractionally integrated semiparametric techniques

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  • Luis Gil-Alana

Abstract

The behaviour of the real exchange rates (relative to the US dollar) is examined in this article using monthly data obtained from the black markets for foreign exchange of eight Asian developing countries. Using the quasi maximum likelihood estimation procedure of Robinson (Annals of Statistics, 23, 1630-61, 1995), the results indicate that the order of integration of all currencies except the Indian and the Pakistani rupees are close but below 1, implying that mean reversion occurs in the long run.

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  • Luis Gil-Alana, 2002. "Real exchange rates: evidence from black markets using fractionally integrated semiparametric techniques," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(12), pages 787-790.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:12:p:787-790
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850210165883
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
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    3. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    4. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
    5. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-174, March.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
    7. Kul B. Luintel, 2000. "Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 161-185.
    8. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Can the Balassa-Samuelson theory explain long-run real exchange rate movements in OECD countries?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 519-530.
    3. Assaf, Ata, 2008. "Nonstationarity in real exchange rates using unit root tests with a level shift at unknown time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 269-278.

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