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Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Euro Area consolidation

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  • Sebastian Gechert
  • Andrew Hughes Hallett
  • Ansgar Rannenberg

Abstract

We estimate the impact of the fiscal consolidation actions in the Euro Area between 2011 and 2013 on output and public finances. We identify the discretionary fiscal consolidation effort based on new data by the European Commission. We combine these data with robust estimates from a rich meta-regression analysis on multipliers for various fiscal measures under different business cycle regimes. The frontloaded consolidation came at a considerable cost with an output loss of 7.7% and only a small gain to the primary balance of 0.2% of GDP. Backloading would have been much less costly due to lower multipliers.

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  • Sebastian Gechert & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Euro Area consolidation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1138-1140, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:16:p:1138-1140
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1137545
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher Erceg & Jesper Lindé, 2014. "Is There A Fiscal Free Lunch In A Liquidity Trap?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 73-107, February.
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    5. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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    1. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2018. "Which Fiscal Multipliers Are Regime‐Dependent? A Meta‐Regression Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 1160-1182, September.
    2. Sergio Destefanis & Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta, 2022. "Regional multipliers across the Italian regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 1179-1205, September.
    3. Stefano di Bucchianico, 2019. "A bit of Keynesian debt-to-GDP arithmetic for deficit-capped countries," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 13(1), pages 55-83, June.
    4. Jan Čapek & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2020. "We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 483-502, June.
    5. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
    6. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2020. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans: The case of Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 699-711.
    7. Theodore Mariolis & Nikolaos Ntemiroglou & George Soklis, 2018. "The static demand multipliers in a joint production framework: comparative findings for the Greek, Spanish and Eurozone economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, December.
    8. Schoder, Christian, 2020. "A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 117-132.
    9. Acocella, Nicola & Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Felici, Francesco, 2019. "An evaluation of alternative fiscal adjustment plans," EconStor Preprints 209707, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Prante, Franz J. & Barmucci, Alessandro & Hein, Eckhard & Truger, Achim, 2019. "Interactive macroeconomics: A pluralist simulator," IPE Working Papers 117/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    11. Dobrota Gabriela & Popescu Anisia-Maria & Neacsu Alexandru Adrian, 2023. "An Empirical Study On Fiscal Policy And Economic Growth In Romania," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 32-39, December.
    12. Francesco Prota & Maria Jennifer Grisorio, 2018. "Public expenditure in time of crisis: are Italian policymakers choosing the right mix?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 337-365, August.

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