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Estimating drift parameters in a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model

Author

Listed:
  • Khalifa Es-Sebaiy

    (Kuwait University)

  • Mohammed Es.Sebaiy

    (Cadi Ayyad University)

Abstract

We study a problem of parameter estimation for a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model defined as $$dX_t=\theta (\mu + X_t)dt+dG_t,\ t\ge 0$$ d X t = θ ( μ + X t ) d t + d G t , t ≥ 0 with unknown parameters $$\theta >0$$ θ > 0 , $$\mu \in {\mathbb {R}}$$ μ ∈ R and $$\alpha :=\theta \mu $$ α : = θ μ , where G is a Gaussian process. We provide least square-type estimators $$(\widetilde{\theta }_T,\widetilde{\mu }_T)$$ ( θ ~ T , μ ~ T ) and $$(\widetilde{\theta }_T,\widetilde{\alpha }_T)$$ ( θ ~ T , α ~ T ) , respectively, for $$(\theta ,\mu )$$ ( θ , μ ) and $$(\theta ,\alpha )$$ ( θ , α ) based a continuous-time observation of $$\{X_t,\ t\in [0,T]\}$$ { X t , t ∈ [ 0 , T ] } as $$T\rightarrow \infty $$ T → ∞ . Our aim is to derive some sufficient conditions on the driving Gaussian process G in order to ensure the strongly consistency and the joint asymptotic distribution of $$(\widetilde{\theta }_T,\widetilde{\mu }_T)$$ ( θ ~ T , μ ~ T ) and $$(\widetilde{\theta }_T,\widetilde{\alpha }_T)$$ ( θ ~ T , α ~ T ) . Moreover, we obtain that the limit distribution of $$\widetilde{\theta }_T$$ θ ~ T is a Cauchy-type distribution, and $$\widetilde{\mu }_T$$ μ ~ T and $$\widetilde{\alpha }_T$$ α ~ T are asymptotically normal. We apply our result to fractional Vasicek, subfractional Vasicek and bifractional Vasicek processes. This work extends the results of El Machkouri et al. (J Korean Stat Soc 45:329–341, 2016) studied in the case where $$\mu =0$$ μ = 0 .

Suggested Citation

  • Khalifa Es-Sebaiy & Mohammed Es.Sebaiy, 2021. "Estimating drift parameters in a non-ergodic Gaussian Vasicek-type model," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(2), pages 409-436, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:stmapp:v:30:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10260-020-00528-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10260-020-00528-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Es-Sebaiy, Khalifa & Viens, Frederi G., 2019. "Optimal rates for parameter estimation of stationary Gaussian processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3018-3054.
    2. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
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    4. Nourdin, Ivan & Diu Tran, T.T., 2019. "Statistical inference for Vasicek-type model driven by Hermite processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(10), pages 3774-3791.
    5. Katsuto Tanaka & Weilin Xiao & Jun Yu, 2020. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for the Fractional Vasicek Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-28, August.
    6. F. Comte & L. Coutin & E. Renault, 2012. "Affine fractional stochastic volatility models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 337-378, May.
    7. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    8. Jim Gatheral & Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "Volatility is rough," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 933-949, June.
    9. Hu, Yaozhong & Nualart, David, 2010. "Parameter estimation for fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(11-12), pages 1030-1038, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rachid Belfadli & Khalifa Es-Sebaiy & Fatima-Ezzahra Farah, 2022. "Statistical analysis of the non-ergodic fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with periodic mean," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 85(7), pages 885-911, October.
    2. Wang, Jixia & Xiao, Xiaofang & Li, Chao, 2023. "Least squares estimations for approximate fractional Vasicek model driven by a semimartingale," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 207-218.

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