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Assessing the timing of mining investment under tax policy uncertainty: the case of the Asia-Pacific region

Author

Listed:
  • Nam Foo

    (Curtin University)

  • Harry Bloch

    (Curtin University)

  • Ruhul Salim

    (Curtin University)

Abstract

Mining involves the discovery, extraction, and processing of non-renewable resources. The potential of mining revenues to contribute to national economic development is well known, but the allocation of mineral wealth and the concern of increasing resource scarcity have become issues of debate in the mining industry. The purpose of this study is to introduce the binomial decision tree analysis, which is a new approach to mining investment decisions. The examples used examine the impact by a policy change. Using three mining projects in the Asia-Pacific, in Australia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, findings about options for the investor suggest it is sometimes better to wait for a more suitable time to invest. Using such knowledge provides the potential to change the investment climate in mining.

Suggested Citation

  • Nam Foo & Harry Bloch & Ruhul Salim, 2017. "Assessing the timing of mining investment under tax policy uncertainty: the case of the Asia-Pacific region," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 117-139, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minecn:v:30:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0106-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s13563-017-0106-y
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    2. Maryke C. Rademeyer, 2021. "Investigating the outcome for South African coal supply to the domestic market when faced with declining demand for exported coal," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(3), pages 441-453, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mining investment; Real options; The Asia-Pacific; Timing; Irreversibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q33 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Resource Booms (Dutch Disease)
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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