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Fertility preferences in China in the twenty-first century

Author

Listed:
  • Rui Lu

    (University of Groningen
    Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI-KNAW))

  • Anne Gauthier

    (University of Groningen
    Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI-KNAW))

  • Gert Stulp

    (University of Groningen)

Abstract

There is continuing debate on how low China’s fertility has reached and whether China has fallen into the “low fertility trap”. This paper addresses this debate by revisiting the trends in fertility preferences in the past decades in China based on a meta review. Moreover, the analysis contrasts distinct measurements of fertility preferences to capture different aspects of reproductive decision-making. This papers reviews 152 studies resulting in 137 estimates for the mean of preferred number of children, 104 estimates for the proportions of different numbers of children preferred and 66 estimates for the second-child preferences. We found that after the long-time decline of fertility preferences in the last century, the average family size remained at a low level but started to increase slowly since 2001. This upturn was observed for all three types of measurements of fertility preferences: ideal, desired, and planned family size. The results also indicate a strong two-child preference (more than 50% of respondents) in China, although 30% of people prefer one child and only a small fraction indicating an ideal family size for three or more children. Results on people’s preference for a second child were less consistent. We concluded that fertility is unlikely to increase rapidly in China even when the government adopts more relaxed family planning policy. Because the upward trend in fertility preferences was very minimal and the economic constraints will prevent many people to realise their preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Rui Lu & Anne Gauthier & Gert Stulp, 2023. "Fertility preferences in China in the twenty-first century," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 1-30, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joprea:v:40:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s12546-023-09303-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s12546-023-09303-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stuart Basten & Quanbao Jiang, 2015. "Fertility in China: An uncertain future," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(sup1), pages 97-105, April.
    2. repec:cai:poeine:pope_901_0009 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Juhua Yang, 2017. "Gendered division of domestic work and willingness to have more children in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(62), pages 1949-1974.
    4. Dudley Poston & Baochang Gu, 1987. "Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 531-551, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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