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A Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Time-varying Attitudes and Its Application to China-US Trade Disputes

Author

Listed:
  • Shawei He

    (Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics
    Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics)

  • Xiaohui Liu

    (Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics)

  • Xianmei Li

    (Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics)

Abstract

A novel graph model with time-varying altitudes is developed to interpret the trade disputes between China and the United States (US) during the period between 2017 and 2019. The implementation of strategies for China and the US was affected by their bilateral relations represented by mutual attitudes changing over time along the evolution of the disputes. The Goldstein scale, a numeral system for studying foreign policies and for describing the fluctuating diplomatic relations affected by historical events, is utilized for eliciting preference relations affected by the time-varying attitudes for the first time. By considering two decision makers (DMs) in the trade disputes, the time varying unilateral improvements (TVUIs) for each DM are initiated based on its judgement which reflects not only the gains or losses for the given DM, but also those for the other DM. In investigating the real-world trade disputes between China and the US, the reasoning of imposing retaliating tariffs for the two countries under time frame is explained. How the fluctuation of time-varying altitudes affects the course of the disputes is also demonstrated. The Phase one agreement legally prohibiting retaliation using tariffs from the two countries was signed when mutual attitude increased by positive interstate events, which eventually ended the tit-for-tat situation. This novel methodology extends the structure of attitudes in graph model by flexibly depicting the fluctuation of mutual attitudes using Goldstein scoring system. Meaningful implications can be provided for DMs to explain how equilibrium can be changed by the time-varying attitudes. In analyzing international disputes in particular, nations can be clearly guided to achieve desired outcomes by making efforts to change bilateral or multilateral relations.

Suggested Citation

  • Shawei He & Xiaohui Liu & Xianmei Li, 2023. "A Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Time-varying Attitudes and Its Application to China-US Trade Disputes," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 603-631, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:grdene:v:32:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s10726-023-09819-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10726-023-09819-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keith W. Hipel & Liping Fang & D. Marc Kilgour, 2020. "The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution: Reflections on Three Decades of Development," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 11-60, February.
    2. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Meixin Guo & Lin Lu & Liugang Sheng & Miaojie Yu, 2018. "The Day After Tomorrow: Evaluating the Burden of Trump's Trade War," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 101-120, Winter/Sp.
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