Mitigation policies evaluation in the electric power sector for carbon neutrality, water conservation, and economic growth in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: a simulation with multi-regional dynamic CGE model

As a politically and culturally important city cluster, the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) has huge electricity and water consumption, while the local power generation capacity and water resources may not be sustainable long term according to the current power generation ratio. We introduced up-to-date strategic policies in China, carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (dual carbon goals), to assess their impact on environmental protection and economic development. Thus, we constructed a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to simulate these changes in BTH. We designed four carbon reduction scenarios to explore the impact of policies including carbon taxes, investment, and renewable energy subsidies individually or combined. The findings reveal that implementing these policies together can increase the proportion of renewable energy in power generation to 17.2% (Beijing), 9.4% (Tianjin), and 33.2% (Hebei) by 2060. Under various policy scenarios, the Tax Scenario shows the largest water withdrawal savings, while the Investment Scenario shows the largest GDP growth by 2060. The combined implementation of these policies may minimize the negative impact on the economy while developing an environmentally friendly region. The results of the Combination Scenario are closest to carbon neutrality, narrowing the gap to 10.71%, 9.98%, and 9.85%, respectively. Conservation (water and electricity) and carbon reduction can provide significant support for carbon neutrality and sustainable development strategies. This study contributes to the evaluation of mitigation policies in BTH and provides a concrete policy option to achieve carbon neutrality.