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The Markov models of cyber-attack life cycles

Author

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  • Romuald Hoffmann

    (Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna, Wydział Cybernetyki, Instytut Systemów Informatycznych)

Abstract

Like never before, a better understanding of the nature of cyber-attack processes which are conducted is needed to make informed defensive decisions and actions. Generally, the process by which cyber-attacks are conducted is described as a cyber-attack lifecycle. The lifecycle is named in military manners as a cyber kill chain as well. Despite of the fact that in their nature cyber-attack processes are stochastic, no models of the lifecycles based on the theory of stochastic processes have been proposed and published practically so far. This work has addressed this deficiency by applying Homogeneous Continuous Time Markov Chain methods to descriptions of observed cyber-attack lifecycles. In this paper two types of models are proposed which have been named as: the simple cyber-attack lifecycle model and the model of cyber-attack lifecycle with iterations.

Suggested Citation

  • Romuald Hoffmann, 2019. "The Markov models of cyber-attack life cycles," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 54, pages 303-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:annals:i:54:y:2019:p:303-318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hahn, Adam & Thomas, Roshan K. & Lozano, Ivan & Cardenas, Alvaro, 2015. "A multi-layered and kill-chain based security analysis framework for cyber-physical systems," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 39-50.
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