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Bevölkerungsentwicklung und Wirtschaftswachstum. Eine Simulationsanalyse für die Schweiz

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  • Christian Schmidt
  • Thomas Straubhaar

Abstract

A simulation exercise of a general equilibrium model for Switzerland makes clear that the macroeconomic impacts of aging populations are not very strong. There is no need for urgent policy actions to avoid severe negative economic consequences. The more open goods, labor and capital markets are, and the more flexible an economy adjusts for demographic changes, the weaker are the macroeconomic effects. However, the aging of population affects negatively the net income of the active labor force. An increasing share of their gross salaries goes to the retirement system to finance the pension payments of a growing number of pensioners. Attempts to moderate the elderly dependency ratio would lower this burden for the active labor force. Options are an increase of the female participation rate, an increase of the labor participation rate of the elderly - what also means a higher retirement age - and an increasing flow of immigrants. But socioeconomic problems might probably generate practical limits on the extent to which immigration can be increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Schmidt & Thomas Straubhaar, 1996. "Bevölkerungsentwicklung und Wirtschaftswachstum. Eine Simulationsanalyse für die Schweiz," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 132(III), pages 395-414, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:1996-iii-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Peichl, Andreas & Fuest, Clemens & Schaefer, Thilo, 2005. "Dokumentation FiFoSiM: Integriertes Steuer-Transfer-Mikrosimulations- und CGE-Modell," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-3, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    2. Stiller, Silvia, 2000. "Demographic Change and Consumption -- A Long-term Simulation Analysis," Discussion Paper Series 26252, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    3. Stiller, Silvia, 1998. "Konsumeffekte demographischer Veranderungen - Eine Simulationsanalyse fur die Bundesrepublik Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 26143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    4. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    5. Stiller, Silvia, 2000. "Demographic change and consumption: A long-term simulation analysis," HWWA Discussion Papers 99, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    6. Stiller, Silvia, 1998. "Konsumeffekte demographischer Veränderungen - Eine Simulationsanalyse für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 69, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    7. Andreas Peichl & Thilo Schaefer, 2009. "FiFoSiM - an integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model for Germany," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15.
    8. Schaefer, Thilo & Peichl, Andreas, 2006. "Documentation FiFoSiM: integrated tax benefit microsimulation and CGE model," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 06-10, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.

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