IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/seb/journl/v18y2020i1p101-113.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Re-Examining the Stability of Money Multiplier for the US: The Nonlinear ARDL Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ismet Gocer

    (Aydin Adnan Menderes University, Turkey)

  • Serdar Ongar

    (St. Mary's College of Maryland, St. Mary's City, MD, USA)

Abstract

The risinguncertainties in the economy and the entwined global financial markets can easily cause nonlinear (asymmetric) behaviors among economic actors. Accordingly, this study re-considers the stability of the money multiplier from a different methodological perspective from that of prior studies, which assumed a linear relationship between money supply and monetary base. To this aim, the nonlinear ARDL model is applied for the US for the 2000M1-2018M9 period. Empirical findings of the nonlinear model indicate that only increases in positive monetary base shocks have a proportional relation with money supply. Additionally, the nonlinear ARDL detects proportional relationships between money supply and monetary base lower degree than the linear model

Suggested Citation

  • Ismet Gocer & Serdar Ongar, 2020. "Re-Examining the Stability of Money Multiplier for the US: The Nonlinear ARDL Model," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 18(1), pages 101-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:seb:journl:v:18:y:2020:i:1:p:101-113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.asecu.gr/Seeje/issue34/issue34-gocer-ongan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yannis Panagopoulos & Aristotelis Spiliotis, 2008. "Alternative money theories: a G7 testing," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 601-622, July.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    4. Wasanthi Thenuwara & Bryan Morgan, 2017. "Monetary targeting in Sri Lanka: how much control does the central bank have over the money supply?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 276-296, April.
    5. Peter Howells & Khaled Hussein, 1998. "The Endogeneity of Money: Evidence from the G7," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 329-340, August.
    6. Darrin Downes & Winston Moore & Dwayne Jackson, 2006. "Financial liberalization and the stationarity of money multiplier," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 227-240.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    8. Razzaque Hamza Bhatti & Muhammad Junaid Khawaja, 2018. "The existence of a stable money multiplier in the small open economy of Kazakhstan," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 45(6), pages 1211-1223, November.
    9. Badarudin, Z.E. & Ariff, M. & Khalid, A.M., 2013. "Post-Keynesian money endogeneity evidence in G-7 economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 146-162.
    10. Howells, Peter & Hussein, Khaled, 1998. "The Endogeneity of Money: Evidence from the G7," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 329-340, August.
    11. Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 1996. "The Stability of Money Multiplier : A Test for Cointregration," Discussion Papers 9603, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    13. Imad A. Moosa & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1997. "International Parity Conditions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-25523-8, September.
    14. Baghestani, Hamid & Mott, Tracy, 1997. "A Cointegration Analysis of the U.S. Money Supply Process," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 269-283, April.
    15. K. Moses Tule & O. Taiwo Ajilore, 2016. "On the stability of the money multiplier in Nigeria: Co-integration analyses with regime shifts in banking system liquidity," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1187780-118, December.
    16. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    17. Karl Brunner & Allan H. Meltzer, 1964. "Some Further Investigations Of Demand And Supply Functions For Money," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 240-283, May.
    18. Gangadhar Darbha, 2002. "Testing for long-run stability - an application to money multiplier in India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 33-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2019. "Does the Bank of Thailand have the control over the money supply?," MPRA Paper 94932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mary O. Agboola & Festus V. Bekun, 2019. "Does Agricultural Value Added Induce Environmental Degradation? Empirical Evidence from an Agrarian Country," CEREDEC Working Papers 19/040, Centre de Recherche pour le Développement Economique (CEREDEC).
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Current Issues in Time-Series Analysis for the Energy-Growth Nexus; Asymmetries and Nonlinearities Case Study: Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82221, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2017.
    4. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Jerome Geyer‐Klingeberg & Andreas W. Rathgeber, 2021. "Determinants of the WTI‐Brent price spread revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 736-757, May.
    6. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Jeyhun Mammadov & Elvin Mammadov, 2018. "The Impact of Financial Development on Energy Consumption: Evidence from an Oil-Rich Economy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, June.
    7. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "Japanese aggregate import demand function: reassessment from the 'bounds' testing approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 419-436, December.
    8. Darrin Downes & Winston Moore & Dwayne Jackson, 2006. "Financial liberalization and the stationarity of money multiplier," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 227-240.
    9. Kakali Kanjilal, 2014. "Rational expectation hypothesis: empirical evidence from government debt market in India," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 353-370.
    10. Serdar Ongan & Ismet Gocer, 2019. "Revisiting the Stability of Money Multiplier on Determination of Money Supply: Evidence from Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1621-1628.
    11. Saba Charles Shaaba, 2022. "Defence Spending and Economic Growth in South Africa: Evidence from Cointegration and Co-Feature Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(1), pages 51-100, February.
    12. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2013. "Environmental Kuznet’s curve for India: Evidence from tests for cointegration with unknown structuralbreaks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 509-515.
    13. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    14. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve and the role of energy consumption in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2011.
    16. Athanasios Papadopoulos & Moïse Sidiropoulos, 1999. "The sustainability of fiscal policies in the European Union," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 289-307, August.
    17. Adil, Masudul Hasan & Haider, Salman & Hatekar, Neeraj, 2018. "The empirical verification of money demand in case of India: Post-reform era," MPRA Paper 87148, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Jun 2018.
    18. Moayad H. Al Rasasi, 2020. "Assessing the Stability of Money Demand Function in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 22-28, 02-2020.
    19. Ariff, Mohamed & Zarei, Alireza & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2021. "Monitoring exchange rate instability in 12 selected Islamic economies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    20. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:763-774 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chen, George S. & Yao, Yao & Malizard, Julien, 2017. "Does foreign direct investment crowd in or crowd out private domestic investment in China? The effect of entry mode," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-419.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Money Multiplier; Asymmetry; Linear and Nonlinear ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:seb:journl:v:18:y:2020:i:1:p:101-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ms. Melina Petromelidou (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asecuea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.