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Оценка эффективности механизмов укрепления государственного суверенитета России // Performance Evaluation of the Mechanisms Strengthening the State Sovereignty of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • V. Makarov L.

    (Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • A. Bakhtizin R.

    (Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • B. Khabriev R.

    (Central Economic and Mathematical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow)

  • В. Макаров Л.

    (Центральный экономико-математический институт Российской академии наук)

  • А. Бахтизин Р.

    (Центральный экономико-математический институт Российской академии наук)

  • Б. Хабриев Р.

    (Центральный экономико-математический институт Российской академии наук)

Abstract

In this article, the authors present a quantitative assessment of the consequences of a number of government decisions aimed at achieving accelerated economic growth, namely: 1) diversifcation of the economy; 2) reduction of the differentiation of regions; 3) increase of social protection of the population; 4) stimulation of the domestic demand. The authors used for calculations the modifed model complex developed in CEMI RAS. The complex includes a set of Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE models) and Agent-Based Models (ABMs). The author’s calculations showed, as compared with other industries, that the increase in fnancing of the sectors of the new economy leads for 7 years to the growth of GDP by 4.45 percentage points in relation to the basic version of the economy. We also established that due to tax preferences and differentiated investment policy in relation to the “problem” regions, it is possible to equalize the level of development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the process of inter-regional smoothing is time-consuming and a signifcant effect is possible after fve years from the beginning of the implementation of the relevant mechanisms. The results of the calculations showed that the increase in benefts as a whole leads to GDP growth and has a positive impact on the economic system. We also concluded that the reduction of the refnancing rate leads to an increase in GDP and lower inflation. With the help of the model complex, we calculated the influence of a number of illegal fnancial transactions on the main macro indicators. Quantitative assessment was carried out in three scenarios: 1) withdrawal of budget funds; 2) tax evasion by individuals and legal entities; 3) withdrawal of fnancial assets abroad. The unrealized GDP growth potential for the six years compared to the initial period was 11.107, 21.323, and 31.976 percentage points for the three scenarios, respectively. The calculations also show that almost any cash infusion into the real sector of the economy leads to GDP growth due to signifcant demonetization of the Russian economy. В статье проведена количественная оценка последствий ряда государственных решений, нацеленных на достижение форсированного экономического роста, а именно: 1) диверсификация экономики; 2) снижение дифференциации регионов; 3) повышение социальной защищенности населения; 4) стимулирование внутреннего спроса. Для расчетов модифицирован и использован модельный комплекс, разработанный в ЦЭМИ РАН. В основу комплекса включен набор вычислимых моделей общего равновесия [ComputableGeneralEquilibrium (CGE) models] и агенториентированных моделей [Agent-BasedModels (ABMs)]. Расчеты показали, что увеличение финансирования отраслей новой экономики в сравнении с прочими отраслями приводит к росту ВВП за 7 лет на 4,45 процентных пункта по отношению к базовому варианту развития экономики. Также установлено, что за счет налоговых преференций и дифференцированной инвестиционной политики по отношению к «проблемным» регионам возможно выравнивание уровня развития субъектов РФ. Авторы делают вывод, что процесс межрегионального сглаживания является долгосрочным, и значимый эффект возможен после пяти лет от начала реализации соответствующих механизмов. Результаты расчетов показали, что увеличение пособий в целом ведет к росту ВВП и оказывает благоприятное воздействие на экономическую систему. Также сделан вывод, что уменьшение ставки рефинансирования приводит к увеличению ВВП и снижению инфляции. С помощью модельного комплекса рассчитано влияние на основные макропоказатели ряда незаконных финансовых операций. Количественная оценка проводилась по трем сценариям: 1) вывод бюджетных средств; 2) уклонение от уплаты налогов со стороны физических и юридических лиц; 3) вывод финансовых активов за рубеж. Нереализованный потенциал прироста ВВП за шесть лет по отношению к начальному периоду составил 11,107; 21,323 и 31,976 процентных пунктов для трех сценариев соответственно. Проведенные расчеты также свидетельствуют о том, что практически любое денежное вливание в реальный сектор экономики приводит к приросту ВВП в силу значительной демонетизации экономики России.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Makarov L. & A. Bakhtizin R. & B. Khabriev R. & В. Макаров Л. & А. Бахтизин Р. & Б. Хабриев Р., 2018. "Оценка эффективности механизмов укрепления государственного суверенитета России // Performance Evaluation of the Mechanisms Strengthening the State Sovereignty of Russia," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 22(5), pages 6-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:financ:y:2018:i:5:p:6-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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