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Cyber-enabled influence operations as a ‘center of gravity’ in cyberconflict: The example of Russian foreign interference in the 2016 US federal election

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  • Jelena Vićić

    (Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University)

  • Erik Gartzke

    (Department of Political Science and Center for Peace and Security Studies, University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

Russia’s cyber-enabled influence operations (CEIO) have garnered significant public, academic and policy interest. 126 million Americans were reportedly exposed to Russia’s efforts to influence the 2016 US election on Facebook. Indeed, to the extent that such efforts shape political outcomes, they may prove far more consequential than other, more flamboyant forms of cyber conflict. Importantly, CEIOs highlight the human dimension of cyber conflict. Focused on ‘hacking human minds’ and affecting individuals behind keyboards, as opposed to hacking networked systems, CEIOs represent an emergent form of state cyber activity. Importantly, data for studying CEIOs are often publicly available. We employ semantic network analysis (SNA) to assess data seldom analyzed in cybersecurity research – the text of actual advertisements from a prominent CEIO. We examine the content, as well as the scope and scale of the Russian-orchestrated social media campaign. While often described as ‘disinformation,’ our analysis shows that the information utilized in the Russian CEIO was generally factually correct. Further, it appears that African Americans, not white conservatives, were the target demographic that Russia sought to influence. We conclude with speculation, based on our findings, about the likely motives for the CEIO.

Suggested Citation

  • Jelena Vićić & Erik Gartzke, 2024. "Cyber-enabled influence operations as a ‘center of gravity’ in cyberconflict: The example of Russian foreign interference in the 2016 US federal election," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(1), pages 10-27, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:61:y:2024:i:1:p:10-27
    DOI: 10.1177/00223433231225814
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ryan Shandler & Daphna Canetti, 2024. "Introduction: Cyber-conflict – Moving from speculation to investigation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(1), pages 3-9, January.
    2. Christos Makridis & Lennart Maschmeyer & Max Smeets, 2024. "If it bleeps it leads? Media coverage on cyber conflict and misperception," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(1), pages 72-86, January.
    3. Benjamin Jensen & Brandon Valeriano & Sam Whitt, 2024. "How cyber operations can reduce escalation pressures: Evidence from an experimental wargame study," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(1), pages 119-133, January.

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