IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v46y2009i6p739-756.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hostage Taking: Determinants of Terrorist Logistical and Negotiation Success

Author

Listed:
  • Khusrav Gaibulloev

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Dallas)

  • Todd Sandler

    (Department of Economics, University of Texas at Dallas, tsandler@utdallas.edu)

Abstract

This article investigates the determinants of logistical and negotiation success from the terrorists’ viewpoint in hostage-taking missions. Logistical success indicates that the terrorists apparently completed the mission as planned, while negotiation success means that the terrorists received some of their initial demands. In the empirical analysis, the article utilizes a new dataset on hostage incidents from 1978 through 2005 for the logit regressions. Empirical results broadly support the authors’ theoretical predictions. Logistical success depends positively on terrorist resources and target vulnerability, while negotiation success increases with the relative disagreement values and relative bargaining strengths of the terrorists. More specifically, terrorist success at the execution stage depends positively on kidnappings and large hostage grabs and varies negatively with attack force diversity and terrorist casualties. Negotiation success depends on bargaining variables (i.e. the number of hostages, casualties, incident duration, and other proxies). The article shows that the factors that determine terrorist negotiation success differ between kidnappings and non-kidnappings (i.e. skyjackings, the takeover of buildings, and the hijacking of non-aerial means of transport), owing to location and other considerations (e.g. types of demands). In particular, making multiple demands bolsters negotiated success in non-kidnappings, while demanding money fosters negotiated success in kidnappings. Lengthier incidents have a positive influence on the likelihood of terrorists gaining concessions in kidnappings and non-kidnappings.

Suggested Citation

  • Khusrav Gaibulloev & Todd Sandler, 2009. "Hostage Taking: Determinants of Terrorist Logistical and Negotiation Success," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(6), pages 739-756, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:46:y:2009:i:6:p:739-756
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/46/6/739.abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Markus Mayer & Markus Voeth, 2022. "Improving negotiation success in B2B sales organizations: is structured negotiation management a success factor?," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(2), pages 163-196, February.
    2. Alexander Fink & Mark Pingle, 2014. "Kidnap insurance and its impact on kidnapping outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 481-499, September.
    3. Olaf J. de Groot & Matthew D. Rablen & Anja Shortland, 2012. "Barrgh-gaining with Somali Pirates," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 74, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Shortland, Anja & Vothknecht, Marc, 2011. "Combating “maritime terrorism” off the coast of Somalia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 133-151.
    5. Brandt, Patrick T. & George, Justin & Sandler, Todd, 2016. "Why concessions should not be made to terrorist kidnappers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 41-52.
    6. Brandt, Patrick T. & Sandler, Todd, 2009. "Hostage taking: Understanding terrorism event dynamics," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 758-778, September.
    7. Charlinda Santifort & Todd Sandler, 2013. "Terrorist success in hostage-taking missions: 1978–2010," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 125-137, July.
    8. Kerim Peren Arin & Eberhard Feess & Torben Kuhlenkasper & Otto F. M. Reich, 2019. "Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 305-317, July.
    9. Terrence August & Duy Dao & Marius Florin Niculescu, 2022. "Economics of Ransomware: Risk Interdependence and Large-Scale Attacks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(12), pages 8979-9002, December.
    10. Kim, Wukki & Sandler, Todd, 2021. "Duration and competing-risks determinants of terrorist hostage-taking incidents," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. M. Vannini & B. Mccannon & C. Detotto, 2012. "Understanding Ransom Kidnapping and Its Duration," Working Paper CRENoS 201219, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:46:y:2009:i:6:p:739-756. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.