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Impact of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance of India: Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Error Correction Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Lingaraj Mallick
  • Smruti Ranjan Behera
  • Mita Bhattacharya

Abstract

In this research, we investigate the dynamic relationship between the trade balance and exchange rate in the case of India using threshold cointegration and an asymmetric error-correction model. Empirical results validate that the long-run dynamic relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates is asymmetric. In the short run, the trade balance responds only due to positive deviations in the exchange rate. In contrast, in the exchange rate model, the exchange rate reacts only due to negative deviations in the trade balance. In addition, the results exhibit that the adjustment following variation in the exchange rate seems higher than the adjustment in the trade balance in the short run. Besides, the results indicate that the speed of adjustment due to the positive and negative shocks differs in the trade balance and the exchange rate models. Further, the uni- directional Granger causality result suggests that the trade balance substantially affects the exchange rate. However, the Granger causality effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance seems minimal. Finally, our results validate the impact of momentum equilibrium adjustment path asymmetric effects between the trade balance and exchange rate, indicating that the adjustment path is asymmetric in the long run. Therefore, policy planners in India should consider the asymmetric adjustment between these two drivers to overcome trade balance discrepancies in the short and long run. JEL Codes: F40, F41, C22, C32, C12

Suggested Citation

  • Lingaraj Mallick & Smruti Ranjan Behera & Mita Bhattacharya, 2024. "Impact of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance of India: Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Error Correction Approach," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 59(2), pages 279-308, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:fortra:v:59:y:2024:i:2:p:279-308
    DOI: 10.1177/00157325231158855
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade balance; exchange rate; non-linear threshold cointegration; asymmetric error-correction; causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General

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