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Stock Market Volatility Using GARCH Models: Evidence from South Africa and China Stock Markets

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  • Priviledge Cheteni

Abstract

This study looks into the relationship between stock returns and volatility in South Africa and China stock markets. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate volatility of the stock returns, namely, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange FTSE/JSE Albi index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The sample period is from January 1998 to October 2014. Empirical results show evidence of high volatility in both the JSE market, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that volatility is persistent in both exchange markets and resembles the same movement in returns. Consistent with most stock return studies, we find that movements of both markets seem to take a similar trajectory.Keywords: GARCH, ARCH effect, JSE index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

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  • Priviledge Cheteni, 2017. "Stock Market Volatility Using GARCH Models: Evidence from South Africa and China Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(6), pages 237-245.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:8:y:2017:i:6:p:237-245
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v8i6(J).1497
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    2. Neifar, Malika, 2020. "Stock Market Volatility Analysis: A Case Study of TUNindex," MPRA Paper 99140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Longsheng Cheng & Mahboubeh Shadabfar & Arash Sioofy Khoojine, 2023. "A State-of-the-Art Review of Probabilistic Portfolio Management for Future Stock Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-34, February.
    4. Bonga, Wellington Garikai, 2019. "Stock Market Volatility Analysis using GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Zimbabwe Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 94201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Drivers of Realized Volatility for Emerging Countries with a Focus on South Africa: Fundamentals versus Sentiment," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, March.
    6. Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Climate Risks and Stock Market Volatility Over a Century in an Emerging Market Economy: The Case of South Africa," Working Papers 202326, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    garch; arch effect; jse index; shanghai stock exchange composite index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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