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Using a Macroeconomic Model to Check Forecast Consistency

Author

Listed:
  • Stanica, Cristian Nicolae

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy; Faculty of Economic Sciences, Hyperion University of Bucharest.)

Abstract

In macroeconomic modelling a central role is played by the forecast of state budget revenues and expenditures, since the financial-budgetary resources are the bases of income redistribution in the society and orientate economic growth. In view to achieve a trade-off between sustainable stimulation of economic growth and the optimal level of budget revenues, various scenarios should be developed, depending on the governmental policies, by using financial programming models. The article includes the presentation of a reduced model used for drawing up a macroeconomic forecast version consistent with the medium-term budgetary planning assumed by the decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanica, Cristian Nicolae, 2013. "Using a Macroeconomic Model to Check Forecast Consistency," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 119-135, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2013:i:1:p:119-135
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanica, Cristian, 2004. "Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Sam Model For The Romanian Economy - Part Ii – Equations Of The Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(3), pages 66-73, August.
    2. Moisa, Altar & Necula, Ciprian & Bobeica, Gabriel, 2010. "Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy. An Eclectic Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 5-25, September.
    3. Pereira, Alfredo M. & Shoven, John B., 1988. "Survey of dynamic computational general equilibrium models for tax policy evaluation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 401-436.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2010. "Macromodel Simulations for the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 7-28, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic modelling; national accounts; budget revenues and expenditure; behavioural equations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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