IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2009i4p132-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Activity and Natural Gas as a Potential Destabilizer of the Slovenian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Festic, Mejra

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Maribor, Economic Institute EIPF, Slovenia)

  • Repina, Sebastijan

    (Univ. grad. econ., Researcher, Economic Institute EIPF, Ljubljana.)

Abstract

This article empirically investigates whether natural gas has the potential of destabilizing the Slovenian economy. The results confirmed the indirect relation that the increase in gas prices decelerates the dynamics of aggregate domestic consumption, which further decelerates activities in individual industries. An empirical analysis has proven that the natural gas does have the potential of forecasting the production trends in individual industries within the Slovenian economy. By using the dynamics of natural gas price movements (and other explanatory variables), we can forecast the dynamics of movements in the production of textiles, leather, fur and clothes, rubber and plastic-based products, metals, furniture, as well as in the processing industry, recycling, electricity, natural gas, steam and hot water supplies in Slovenia. The obtained results suggest that natural gas price shocks can influence economic activity beyond those explained by direct input cost effects and via the indirect effect of possibly delaying the purchase of goods.

Suggested Citation

  • Festic, Mejra & Repina, Sebastijan, 2009. "Economic Activity and Natural Gas as a Potential Destabilizer of the Slovenian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 132-152, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2009:i:4:p:132-152
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_09/rjef4_09_8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas prices; production by industries; energy supply; aggregate domestic consumption.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2009:i:4:p:132-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.