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The Regulatory Implications of Three Alternative Econometric Supply Models of Natural Gas

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  • Robert S. Pindyck

Abstract

Three different econometric models of natural gas exploration and discovery have appeared in recent issues of this Journal. By estimating all of them over the same period and with the same data base, and then by simulating each of them as part of a complete supply-demand model, we can compare the regulatory policy implications of each formulation. The reestimated models are seen to have very different price elasticities from their original versions, indicating possible structural change in the industry over the past two decades. The policy implications, in terms of ceiling price increases necessary to eliminate the current shortage of gas, differ considerably among the formulations and indicate no consensus on how gas supplies are likely to respond to price increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S. Pindyck, 1974. "The Regulatory Implications of Three Alternative Econometric Supply Models of Natural Gas," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 5(2), pages 633-645, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:5:y:1974:i:autumn:p:633-645
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter, 2008. "Exploration economics in a regulated petroleum province: The case of the Norwegian Continental Shelf," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 303-320, March.
    2. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    3. Machiel Mulder & Arie ten Cate & Ali Aouragh & Joeri Gorter, 2004. "Gas exploration and production at the Dutch continental shelf: an assessment of the 'Depreciation at Will'," CPB Document 66, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    4. Machiel Mulder & Arie ten Cate & Ali Aouragh & Joeri Gorter, 2004. "Gas exploration and production at the Dutch continental shelf: an assessment of the 'Depreciation at Will'," CPB Document 66.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    5. ten Cate, Arie & Mulder, Machiel, 2007. "Impact of the oil price and fiscal facilities on offshore mining at the Dutch Continental Shelf," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5601-5613, November.
    6. Paul L. Joskow & Roger G. Noll, 1981. "Regulation in Theory and Practice: An Overview," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Public Regulation, pages 1-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Managi, Shunsuke & Opaluch, James J. & Jin, Di & Grigalunas, Thomas A., 2005. "Technological change and petroleum exploration in the Gulf of Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 619-632, March.
    8. Wiser, Ryan & Bolinger, Mark, 2007. "Can deployment of renewable energy put downward pressure on natural gas prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 295-306, January.
    9. Dahl, Carol & Duggan, Thomas E., 1998. "Survey of price elasticities from economic exploration models of US oil and gas supply," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 129-169.
    10. Harry Patria, 2021. "The Role of Success Rate, Discovery, Appraisal Spending, and Transitioning Region on Exploration Drilling of Oil and Gas in Indonesia in 2004–2015," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 67, pages 183-194, Desember.
    11. Forbes, Kevin F. & Zampelli, Ernest M., 2002. "Technology and the exploratory success rate in the U.S. onshore," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 319-334.

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