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On the Robustness of Cointegration Tests of the Market Efficiency Hypothesis: Evidence from Six European Foreign Exchange Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Masih , Abul M.M.

    (School of Finance and Business Economics. Faculty of Business, Edith Cowan University)

  • Masih, Rumi

    (Goldman Sachs Asset Management)

Abstract

By using Johansen's multivariate co integration procedural, six European spot forward exchange rates are used to test f or the market efficiency hypothesis under three different exchange rate regimes. Although the co integration technique is b extensively used for hypothesis testing of a similar nature, vary little work has been done to substantiate the results derived from this technique either with respect robustness of modal specification or sample stability. The paper highlights this a by providing: emphasis upon the international properties of the data via a menu unit root tests; iterative tests for the number of co integrating vectors over the floating period; and extends the analysis to construct multi-dimensional models in an examination of both spot and forward market efficiency between all the European currencies. The evidence is not supportive of the unbiasedness condition and hence market efficiency inside any of the European exchange markets. However, tests are across alternative spot/forward rate combinations exhibited efficiency for ma of the bilateral relationships over the floating regime. Moreover, results seem to be robust across different exchange rate regimes, model specifications and over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Masih , Abul M.M. & Masih, Rumi, 1994. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Tests of the Market Efficiency Hypothesis: Evidence from Six European Foreign Exchange Markets," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 47(2-3), pages 160-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0416
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    2. Macide Cicek, 2014. "A Cointegration Test for Turkish Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(4), pages 451-471, April.
    3. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A multivariate cointegrated modelling approach in testing temporal causality between energy consumption, real income and prices with an application to two Asian LDCs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(10), pages 1287-1298.
    4. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Stock-Watson dynamic OLS (DOLS) and error-correction modelling approaches to estimating long- and short-run elasticities in a demand function: new evidence and methodological implications from an appl," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 315-334, October.
    5. Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
    6. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    7. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
    8. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Rumi Masih & A. Mansur & M. Masih, 2004. "Common stochastic trends and the dynamic linkages driving european stock markets: evidence from pre- and post-october 1987 crash eras," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 81-104.
    10. Hui-Siang JEE Brenda & Chin-Hong PUAH & Shazali ABU MANSOR, 2011. "Domestic Fuel Price and Economic Sectors in Malaysia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(1), pages 28-41.
    11. Abul M.M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "A Fractional Cointegration Approach to Testing Mean Reversion Between Spot and Forward Exchange Rates: A Case of High Frequency Data with Low Frequency Dynamics," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(7‐8), pages 987-1003, September.
    12. repec:got:cegedp:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
    14. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    15. Ali Farhan Chaudhry & Mian Muhammd Hanif & Sameera Hassan & Muhammad Irfan Chani, 2019. "Efficiency of the Black Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 165-174, February.
    16. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    17. Tang, Chor-Foon & Lau, Evan, 2011. "The Behaviour of Disaggregated Public Expenditures and Income in Malaysia," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 7(1-2), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Alam, Shaista & Ahmed, Mohsin H. & Butt, Muhammad S., 2003. "The dynamics of fertility, family planning and female education in Pakistan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 447-463, June.
    19. Jee, Hui-Siang Brenda & Lau, Evan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali, 2010. "Domestic fuel price and economic sectors in Malaysia: a future of renewable energy?," MPRA Paper 22242, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correctio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-440, August.
    21. Kühl, Michael, 2010. "Bivariate cointegration of major exchange rates, cross-market efficiency and the introduction of the Euro," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-19, January.

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