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Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth I: Growth Effects

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Author Info
Larry E. Jones (University of Minnesota)
Rodolfo E. Manuelli (University of Wisconsin)
Henry E. Siu (University of British Columbia)
Ennio Stacchetti (New York University)

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Abstract

Is there a trade-off between fluctuations and growth? The empirical evidence is mixed, with some studies finding a positive relationship, while others find a negative one. Our objectives are to understand how fundamental uncertainty affects the long run growth rate and to identify important factors determining this relationship in a convex endogenous growth model. Qualitatively, we show that the relationship between volatility in fundamentals (or policies) and mean growth can be either positive or negative. The curvature of the utility function is a key parameter that determines the sign of the relationship. Quantitatively, an increase in uncertainty always increases the growth rate in our calibrated models. Though the changes we find are nontrivial, they are not large enough by themselves to account for the large differences in growth rates observed in the data. We also find that differences in the curvature of preferences have very substantial effects on the estimated variability of stationary objects like the consumption-output ratio and hours worked. For this reason, we expect that the models considered in this paper will provide the basis of sharp estimates of the curvature parameter. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2005.05.004
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 8 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 780-804
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:8:y:2005:i:4:p:780-804

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Related research
Keywords: Growth; Uncertainty; Human capital investment;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O21 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Elena Andreou & Alessandra Pelloni & Marianne Sensier, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth? Evidence from the G7," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 97, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John Laitner & Dan Silverman, 2005. "Estimating Life—Cycle Parameters from Consumption Behavior at Retirement”," Working Papers wp099, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Barbara Annicchiarico & Luisa Corrado & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. " Long-Term Growth and Short-Term Volatility: The Labour Market Nexus," CDMA Working Paper Series 0806, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2005. "Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Endogenous volatility, endogenous growth, and large welfare gains from stabilization policies," Working Papers 2006-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Elena Andreou & Marianne Sensier & Alessandra Pelloni, 2008. "Is Volatility Good for Growth?," Working Paper Series 37-08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
  7. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2006. "Almost sure convergence to zero in stochastic growth models," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 231-237, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Arato, Hiroki, 2008. "Optimal operational monetary policy rules in an endogenous growth model: a calibrated analysis," MPRA Paper 8547, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. John Laitner & Daniel Silverman, 2006. "Consumption, Retirement, and Social Security: Evaluating the Efficiency of Reform with a Life-Cycle Model," Working Papers wp142, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  10. Keith Blackburn & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2008. "Human capital accumulation and output growth in a stochastic environment," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 435-452, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu, 2005. "Fluctuations in Convex Models of Endogenous Growth II: Business Cycle Properties," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 805-828, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. K Blackburn & D Varvarigos, 2006. "Human Capital Accumulation in a Stochastic Environment: Some New Results on the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 74, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  13. Olson, Lars & Roy, Santanu, 2005. "Theory of Stochastic Optimal Economic Growth," Working Papers 28601, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2007. "Sustained Output Growth Under Uncertainty: A Simple Model With Human Capital," Discussion Paper Series 2007_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
  15. Galindev, Ragchaasuren, 2007. "Uncertainty, learning and growth," MPRA Paper 7398, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jan 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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