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Inventories and the Business Cycle: Testing a Sequential Trading Model

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Author Info
Benjamin Eden (University of Haifa)

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Abstract

The uncertain and sequential trading (UST) model of inventories behavior with iid shocks predicts that (a) the beginning of period inventories is a sufficient statistic for past variables and (b) an increase in the beginning of period inventories reduces output, employment, hours per employee, and effort. I find empirical support for the second hypothesis but not for the first. The rejection of the first hypothesis is rather informative and points in the direction of adjustment costs and/or serially correlated shocks. (Copyright: Elsevier)

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/redy.2000.0125
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 562-574
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Handle: RePEc:red:issued:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:562-574

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Related research
Keywords: inventories; business cycle;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Eden, Benjamin, 1994. "The Adjustment of Prices to Monetary Shocks When Trade Is Uncertain and Sequential," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 493-509, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Eden, Benjamin, 1990. "Marginal Cost Pricing When Spot Markets Are Complete," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(6), pages 1293-1306, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 443-520. [Downloadable!]
  4. Valerie A. Ramey & Kenneth D. West, 1997. "Inventories," NBER Working Papers 6315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Ramey, Valerie A. & West, Kenneth D., 1999. "Inventories," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 863-923 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bental, Benjamin & Eden, Benjamin, 1993. "Inventories in a Competitive Environment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(5), pages 863-86, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Williamson, Stephen D., 1996. "Sequential markets and the suboptimality of the Friedman rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 549-572, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Bental, Benjamin & Eden, Bemjamin, 1996. "Money and inventories in an economy with uncertain and sequential trade," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 445-459, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Loan commitments and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 573-605, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  11. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in an Economy with Sequential Purchases," NBER Working Papers 4250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Prescott, Edward C, 1975. "Efficiency of the Natural Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1229-36, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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