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Primary balance, public debt and fiscal variables in postsocialist members of the european union

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  • Vratislav Izák

Abstract

The primary balance has influenced the unit costs of debt servicing in 10 postsocialist members of the EU. The effects of the GDP growth and the inflation are equally robust and significant. The coefficients of lagged debt are at variance with the expectations from Bohn's 1998 paper, and one cannot speak until now about the corrective actions of fiscal authorities in these countries. Only Poland has had on average a higher real long-term interest rate than the growth rate. Other countries could stabilize their debt-GDP ratio by running a primary deficit. But comparing the level of investment with profits only in Slovenia one can speak about the dynamic inefficiency. Especially in the Czech Republic and Slovakia the relationship between debt and deficit is blurred by high negative stock-flow adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Vratislav Izák, 2009. "Primary balance, public debt and fiscal variables in postsocialist members of the european union," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(2), pages 114-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2009:y:2009:i:2:id:345:p:114-130
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.345
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    3. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19.
    4. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    5. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 411, European Central Bank.
    6. David E. Lebow, 2004. "Recent fiscal policy in selected industrial countries," BIS Working Papers 162, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Mr. Francesco Caselli, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 1998/055, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; primary balance; panel analysis; postsocialist members of EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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