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Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements

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  • Christelle Baunez
  • Mickael Degoulet
  • Stéphane Luchini
  • Patrick A Pintus
  • Miriam Teschl

Abstract

An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of COVID-19 in real-time. Using data on cases and tests in France for the period between the first and second lock-downs—May 13 to October 25, 2020—our acceleration index shows that the pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration was stronger than national average for the [59–68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19–28] age group was the lowest and is about half that of the [69–78]. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French “départements” (roughly counties), based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France might possibly enter a third lock-down period with indeterminate duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2021. "Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-21, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0252443
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252443
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    1. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus, 2020. "The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France," AMSE Working Papers 2045, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A. Pintus, 2020. "An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France," AMSE Working Papers 2036, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    3. C. Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2020. "Sub-National Allocation of COVID-19 Tests: An Efficiency Criterion with an Application to Italian Regions," Post-Print hal-03140005, HAL.
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    1. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A. Pintus, 2020. "An Early Assessment of Curfew and Second COVID-19 Lock-down on Virus Propagation in France," AMSE Working Papers 2036, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    2. Christelle Baunez & Michaël Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus, 2022. "Correcting the Reproduction Number for Time-Varying Tests: a Proposal and an Application to COVID-19 in France," AMSE Working Papers 2210, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2023.
    3. Christelle Baunez & Mickaël Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Patrick A Pintus & Miriam Teschl, 2021. "COVID-19 Acceleration and Vaccine Status in France - Summer 2021," Working Papers halshs-03365413, HAL.

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    1. Christelle Baunez & Michaël Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus, 2022. "Correcting the Reproduction Number for Time-Varying Tests: a Proposal and an Application to COVID-19 in France," AMSE Working Papers 2210, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Jan 2023.
    2. Christelle Baunez & Mickael Degoulet & Stéphane Luchini & Matteo L. Pintus, 2020. "The Acceleration Index as a Test-Controlled Reproduction Number: Application to COVID-19 in France," AMSE Working Papers 2045, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

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