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What Caused the 1991 Currency Crisis in India?

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Author Info
Valerie Cerra (International Monetary Fund)
Sweta Chaman Saxena (International Monetary Fund)

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Abstract

Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in India? Did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis? This paper seeks the answers through error correction models and by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate using a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The evidence indicates that overvaluation as well as current account deficits and investor confidence played significant roles in the sharp exchange rate depreciation. The ECM model is supported by superior out-of-sample forecast performance versus a random walk model. . Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 49 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 5
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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:49:y:2002:i:3:p:5

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Effects on Agricultural Producer Support Estimates: Empirical Evidence from India and China," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19121, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  4. Petia Topalova, 2005. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty And Inequality: Evidence From Indian Districts," Working Papers id:222, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Its Effects on Agricultural Producer Support Estimates (PSEs) in India," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25299, International Association of Agricultural Economists. [Downloadable!]
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