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Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence

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  • Daniel C. Hardy

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper examines episodes of banking system distress and crisis in a large sample of countries to identify which macroeconomic and financial variables can be useful leading indicators. The best warning signs of the recent Asian crises were proxies for the vulnerability of the banking and corporate sector. Full-blown banking crises are shown to be associated more with external developments, and domestic variables are the main leading indicators of severe but contained banking distress. Copyright 1999, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel C. Hardy & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1999. "Determinants and Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Further Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:46:y:1999:i:3:p:1
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    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 1998/091, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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